Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Writing some MUCH NEEDED GRIT

This is getting out of hand. Yesterday I found myself saying that adding some extra pepper to my sandwich was an underrated move, one that would slide under the radar, but that it would add some MUCH NEEDED GRIT.

I find a lot of the analysis towards the Leafs' situation kind of frustrating. Just an outright advocation of tanking the rest of the season to get a slight higher draft pick is so wrong, even if it seems to make sense. My understanding of this year's entry draft is that there's three top players, Steve Stamkos, Drew Doughty and Alex Pietrangelo. After that, it's considered a very "deep" draft, which means the same as it does every year: total crapshoot. They only have one first round pick, their own, and should they finish the season where they are now that pick would be in the top 5. The bottom five teams enter into a weighted draft lottery to determine who gets what pick, a measure put in place to prevent teams from deliberately tanking games at the end of the year. Basically, they already have a shot at getting one of these three players with the team they have now, right?

The Leafs' pick is already pretty bad, or good I suppose. I tend to think it'll get better (or worse) since the Leafs, who can't keep the puck out of their net anyways (5th most goals allowed, 5th highest goals-against average, 3rd worst penalty killing), just traded away a stay-at-home defenseman (Hal Gill) and a decent checker (Chad Kilger). Yeah I know, not big names, but they'll be replaced by whomever from their farm team who won't be as good and will make this team worse. This is fine, it's what rebuilding is all about and giving playing time to prospects at this point is exactly what they should be doing. I guess my point is, if your team is already bad enough to linger around the bottom of the league, how much worse do you want to make it?

This is the problem when you talk about rebuilding; EVERYBODY suddenly seems expendable because they all look like they're part of the problem. It's hard not to get caught up in it, I'm guilty of it too. The reality is that there isn't that much separating bad teams from good ones so a total explosion is rarely necessary. It's also unduly painful to watch. You'll win with Kaberle and McCabe going forward, they're still pretty good players and will be for a while. Tucker's $3 million salary isn't bogging down the team, Sundin is your very best and most valuable player, and Pavel Kubina can be traded during the off-season, according to his contract. There's lots of time to accumulate more draft picks this year. Sure, it would have been nice to get a Marian Hossa-type haul for Mats Sundin, but that was never going to happen. As a result, out of frustration the talk shifted to proposing trades for Nik Antropov, Alex Ponikarovsky, and Alex Steen. Those are PART of the rebuilding process, not blockages to it. Does anybody in the Toronto media remember what happened to Brad Boyes, Alyn McCauley, Steve Sullivan, Jason Smith, etc? Good thing Cliff Fletcher does.

The only players this team should have been looking to trade are Kubina, Andrew Raycroft, and Jason Blake. Kubina has underachieved and is hurt all the time, Toskala looks like the number one guy now and Justin Pogge is coming up as the Next Big Leaf Goalie. I thought the Blake signing was a good pickup, but too much and for too many years. He's 34 already and 40 goals last year was a pretty obvious aberration when compared with the rest of his career. Rebuilding just means shedding the age and salary problems, not burning all the assets. Remember, you're the Leafs, for some reason everyone wants to play for you. Just clear some cap space (that same cap that keeps going up, easing your salary cap problems year-by-year) and make room for the incoming flood. There aren't too many teams who need a total rebuild and those that do probably need them from inside management and upwards. Oh, wait...

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

HypeCentre/BlogCentre 2008

I'm not going to attempt to compete with JayCentre 2008 (in fact, I'll even link to it) but here's a few of my own real-time reactions to the day's goings-on:

1. Let's start with What I Was Wrong About: Brian Campbell was traded to San Jose, so a double-wammy since I said he wouldn't go anywhere and that Kubina would go there, which obviously won't happen now. Damn. Brad Richards, a Big Name goes to Dallas (with Holmquist for Mike Smith, Jussi Jokinen and Jeff Halpern. Initial reaction: Huh.). Vaclav Prospal WAS traded, which I correctly guessed but was really a foregone conclusion, but to the wrong team, Philly. So half wrong. Or half right?

2. Brian Campbell to San Jose means Darcy Regier goes after Joni Pitkanen this summer! Draft picks for the Oilers!

3. Cristobal Huet to Washington for a 2nd round pick. Wait. That's a terrible trade. Montreal has a real shot this year, the East is open, and they're going to trust Carey Price with that? Yeah, Price is maybe the best goaltending prospect in the NHL, but this a serious gamble. I thought Huet was playing well this year? Wasn't he?

4. So far I can say I was right about Sundin (nothing to brag about, this seemed really obvious too), Rob Blake and Alex Tanguay not waiving their no-trade clauses. Wrong about Campbell, soon to be wrong about Hossa if the reports are to be believed, but I'm still confident in Jokinen and Roloson staying put.

5. A very busy hour has just passed, is this enough for TSN to justify having, what, twelve people working at once? Plus Jay "working" from home on his blog?

6. According the current CBA, this is the breakdown for restricted free agent draft compensation, if a player's team chooses not to match another team's offer sheet:

$660,000 or below: None
Over $660,000 to $1 million: Third Round
Over $1 million to $2.0 million: Second Round
Over $2.0 million to $3.0 million: First Round and Third Round
Over $3.0 million to $4.0 million: First Round, Second Round, and Third
Round
Over $4.0 million to $5.0 million: Two First Rounds, Second Round, and
Third Round
Over $5 million: Four First Rounds

So that means Edmonton will get four first rounders from Buffalo if they offer more than $5 million, in contrast to what I wrote in my earlier post. And, given Buffalo's recent performance, I expect them to be excellent picks. Zing! Brian Burke would be proud.

I feel confident in saying that in the next few years, as the salary bar continues to rise, you'll see more offer sheets to, what, "lower-end" players (Is that what you call them?) rather than to the upper echelon. I now have the complete 472 page National Hockey League Collective Bargaining agreement on my desktop. Yes Mom but if I HAD become a lawyer, I wouldn't have time for this blog!

7. JayCentre is killing himself this year, he's been updating that page faster than a day trader. Do day traders reload their stock pages often or are they on the phone instead? Answer: they reload their pages because I'm not finding a new comparison and I'm no good at clever similes. I'm about as bad at clever similes as Glen Healy is at analyzing hockey. There. Not funny, but accurate.

8. I like the Chicago-Carolina Tuomo Ruutu for Andrew Ladd trade. Chicago gets Ladd, who might play hockey games once in a while, and Carolina gets Ruutu who, if he can stay healthy, still has a very good offensive upside. A good "hockey" trade, as they used to say.

9. Ottawa getting Lapointe does not mean they're out of the Marian Hossa rumors, just giving up a 6th round pick. Makes them tougher, something Ottawa will never be accused of over-valuing.

10. I agree with Jay, why is Darren Dutchy standing so close to Pierre MacGuire? Why would anyone need to stand so close to Pierre McGuire? They can hear him in the Sportsnet studios across the parking lot, maybe they should be paying part of his salary.

11. Matt Cooke to Washington? I remember that time when the Canucks were "good" and they had that big line of Naslund-Morrison-Bertuzzi but whenever they'd struggle, it was when Cooke was hurt. You'd hear the voices talk about Cooke being a "clutch" player, a "heart-and-soul guy," how he "provided MUCH NEEDED GRIT" (a phrase as overused as "puck-moving defenseman" and "depth forward," which really means "bad old player with a ring") and his absence being a real reason for the team's struggles. I always wondered how good a team really was if Matt Cooke was the difference between winning and losing. And I'm going to start using MUCH NEEDED GRIT in my daily life, as in "that new guy really did a good job cleaning my windshield. He adds some MUCH NEEDED GRIT to the 142 st Shell."

12. Still waiting on Hossa, Jokinen and, most importantly, Byron Ritchie. And other than the incomparable Wade Belak, the Leafs haven't done anything. Curious.

13. Pierre McGuire, I've said before, needs his own show without all the annoyances he has to put up with on TSN. Things like Other People, commercials, time constraints, these are the things that impede Pierre on his Quest For Truth.

14. Hossa to the Penguins! Wow! A monster deal! What an offense they're putting together. Giving up Angelo Esposito is fine, it's starting to look like like he's a pretty questionable prospect at this point. Erik Christensen and Colby Armstrong's numbers are inflated playing with Crosby and Malkin, I think, but we'll see. I like it for both teams because Atlanta gets at least two quality players, though perhaps not as good as they seemed, plus a wild-card prospect and a draft pick, unless TSN is still getting more information.

15. Hossa to Pittsburg = another bad guess by me.

16. The Leafs rebuild is in full swing. Hal Gill, Wade Belak and Chad Kilger are gone, leaving a huge leadership/skill/experience void. Hopefully young, cheap players like Mats Sundin, Pavel Kubina, Darcy Tucker, Brian McCabe and Tomas Kaberle will step up and really change the direction of this team.

Looks like that's all we have. Lots of disappointment I'm sure for the majority of Canadian teams: Toronto couldn't unload any of its logjam of overpaid underperformers, Montreal makes the oddest trade of the day and doesn't add anyone, Ottawa adds a good checker but, like Montreal, loses out on Hossa, Vancouver loses out on Richards and doesn't add any secondary scoring. Edmonton and Calgary stand pat, for differing reasons. Edmonton doesn't have any impending high value unrestricted free agents to auction off and no major salary cap blocks. Dwayne Roloson kept coming up as a result of the emergence of Mathieu Garon, but I would suggest, likely as a minority voice, that a goalie who has been inconsistant throughout his career ought to show he can perform as a number one goalie for more than, really, half a season. Since he's only been the Oilers' guy for that long, it's much better to hang on to a veteran sure-thing as insurance. The Flames have a really good team on paper so there's really no need, they just have to play as well as they have lately. Oh and, leave Tanguay alone. Please. It might help him play better if you stop asking him if he'll still be on the team by the deadline.

Otherwise, despite all the changes, you have to say that the balance of power has only shifted in the East and only in Pittsburg, since Washington's moves were good, if maginal. Despite Richards to Dallas and Campbell to San Jose, those teams are frankly still playing catchup to Anaheim. The Ducks have a tremendous defense, a pretty good goalie who looks a lot better as a result, big skilled forwards, lots of depth, they're tough, experienced, and will be good for at least the next few years. I'd like to see San Jose have a good run and knock off Anaheim but Anaheim really is the class of the West and the NHL as a whole, despite Detroit's great season and the deadlines deals by the Sharks and Stars. That's a tough division, isn't it? And Phoenix is a pretty good team too, no wonder the poor Kings are last overall.

So, an intertaining morning. Even the players you knew would probably go, like Hossa and Campbell, there's still the suspense and surprise that comes with finding out where they'll end up. Did it live up to the hype? If Wayne Gretzky came out of retirement, was involved in a three-way trade with Hossa and Campbell that freed up cap space to acquire Ken Holland to be the Leafs GM, who then hired Toe Blake who traded for John Tavaras who cured cancer, the hype STILL would have been overblown. I love how Duthie handles this, simultaneously mocking and facilitating it at the same time. A deft hosting touch, that one. I have to say that I mostly stuck with TSN all day because I like Jay's blog and I want to know what he's talking about. They also have SO many people working there too that I figure, you know, a million monkeys on a million teleprompters...

See you next year, where hopefully I'll be blogging from a corner office overlooking English Bay.


17. I hate fantasy sports. For one thing, you can't trade somebody for MUCH NEEDED GRIT.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Trade Deadline Predictions!

1. Sundin, Tanguay, Hossa, Campbell, Roloson and Jokinen all stay. Sundin and Tanguay won't waive their no-trade clause, Hossa and Campbell are critical to their respective bubble team's chances of making the playoffs, and Jokinen is awesome and has an affordable contract.

2. The Leafs trade Pavel Kubina. They'll get a few draft picks in what will amount to a pure salary dump. San Jose is my guess, they went after Redden supposedly and they'll have to get past Anaheim's monster blue-line corps eventually. Kubina's big, has a good shot and if he can stay healthy might prove useful.

3. No big names. There's so many teams within striking distance of the playoffs that GMs will be unwilling to upset their teams with major deals. Even a team like Edmonton, who've flirted with Pretender status all year, won't concede their season with selloffs. There's some bottom-feeding teams that should certainly dump impending UFA's, like LA's Brad Stuart, Ladislav Nagy, or Rob Blake. Blake said he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause so he won't go, but LA will try and should succeed in moving Stuart and Nagy.

4. Same story in Tampa. The Big Three stays, Boyle will stay unless a big offer comes along but Vaclav Prospal goes to Dallas. Maybe a goalie prospect in return? Or maybe Roloson goes there... no, I'm not going to contradict myself.

5. The story of the deadline will be draft picks. They're the new NHL currency and with GMs everywhere in love with this year's draft depth they'll be in demand for all teams, not just rebuilding ones. Also, I think this off-season will feature more offer sheets, meaning teams will have to accumulate draft picks to offer as compensation if they go poaching. Joni Pitkonen and Jarret Stoll could sure help the Oilers' rebuild if they get a big money offer from some team that Kevin Lowe's pissed off. If Pitkonen gets a $5 million/year contract, that's two first rounders, a 2nd and a 3rd if I understand it properly. Maybe Buffalo tries to get revenge and makes a stupid offer, especially if they lose Campbell to free agency. Kevin Lowe is a genius, isn't he?

6. TSN, Sportsnet, The Score and their websites make lists of Top Ten Best Deadline Deals, Worst Deadline Deals, Biggest Name Players Traded, Best Deadline Day Analysts, Worst Deadline Day Analyst Toupees, etc, etc, etc. These will occupy most of the coverage because frankly, nobody seems to think a whole lot is going to happen. Not enough cap space (though that's a disputable factor), too many teams in contention and too many no-trade clauses mean the best part of Deadline Day will be Jay Onrait's blog. Enjoy!

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

No more

An open letter to TSN, Sportsnet, The Score, etc. Please stop showing Richard Zednik's horrific throat injury from February 10th in SUPERSLOW HI-DEF OVER AND OVER. Show it once and move on. At best, the ubiquitous replays are Sweeney Todd On Ice, graphic and cringe-worthy but fortunately without consequence. At worst, they're intentionally exploitive, catering to fringe elements of our society who're captivated by real-life gore and violence. I'm not comparing Zednik's cut throat to the Daniel Pearl video, just protesting the rationale that leads sports highlight programs to show the incident three and four times, from different angles, in frame-by-frame slow motion. I'll watch stylized ultra-violent movies with anyone, I'd just rather not see sports injuries subjected to the same kind of glorificating editing treatment.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Super Bowl XLQB?:)$$$$

It would be wrong to have a sports blog and write something about the NHL All-Star Skills competition but not the Super Bowl. I usually get to watch yet for, at most, a mild fan of the NFL, I'm just there for the hot wings. It's often an average game diluted by a brutal two-week break, a painfully drawn-out halftime show, unhelpful commentary, and hit-and-miss commercials. Still, it makes for a good social event. This year's game was outright boring for three quarters. You'd think the highest scoring team in NFL history would be able to put up more than seven points, in an indoor game no less, against a team who finished the regular season 10-6.

Good for the underdogs I guess, though I was hoping to see an undefeated team if for no other reason than to shut the omnipresent 1972 Dolphins right the hell up. This Patriots team was awfully hard to like though with Bill Belichick being such an ass all the time. Leaves the field with a second on the clock, doesn't congradulate the other team in post-game interviews, accused of cheating all year, running up the score early in the season and just a genuinely unpleasant person in press conferences. It's always been a huge pet peeve of mine, the way NFL coaches act like Roman Emperors over their teams and cities. Maybe it's the larger roster or something, but it seems like NFL coaches have a far more grandiose vision of themselves than coaches from other sports. Screw them.