It's January!

...so time to talk baseball! The reported trade of Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus is, according to TSN, now officially done. Pretty straightforeward why the deal was done, Glaus' left foot didn't want any more of the Rogers Center's FieldTurf and Rolen, like many of us, didn't want anymore Tony LaRussa. So who wins? Let's have a wee look:

2007 Stats:

Troy Glaus: 115 games, 101 hits, 19 2B, 20 Hrs, 62 RBI's, .262/.366/.473 (batting avg./on-base %/slugging %)(definitions of each are found here.)
Projected over a full 162 game season: 142 hits, 27 2B, 28 Hrs, 87 RBI's.

Scott Rolen: 112 games, 104 hits, 24 2B, 8 Hrs, 58 RBI's, .265/.331/.398
Projected over 162 games: 150 hits, 35 2B, 12 Hrs, 84 RBI's.

If you look at their projected numbers over 162 games, the numbers are pretty similar except for Glaus' homerun totals. That accounts for his higher OBP and slugging %. Keep in mind though that Rolen battled shoulders problems last year, which likely accounts for his lagging power numbers. If his shoulder problems are fully healed, then those numbers should rebound. If you look at their career OBP, you'll see that Glaus' .358 is a little short of Rolen's .372. Still, Rolen's career numbers (found here) don't approach Glaus' peak power numbers (here) and doesn't walk as much, so Glaus is probably the better offensive player. In St. Louis he'll presumably bat behind Pujols, meaning he'll be hitting with plenty of runners on base and the RBI totals should be higher. Offensive advantage: Cardinals.

Defensively, Glaus has a career fielding percentage of .967 compared to Rolen's .969 meaning that they basically make the same number of errors. The difference, though, is Rolen's range. In 2007, Glaus had a Revised Zone Rating (measures how many balls within the player's fielding zone are converted into OUTS, not just whether an error was made) of .706, 5th in the American League. Rolen's was .742, 2nd in the National League (the leader, Pedro Feliz, was only slightly higher at .747). To me, that says that Rolen made more plays within his designated zone because he was able to cover more ground. Interestingly though, Rolen recorded 39 outs on balls-in-play OUTSIDE his zone (7th in the NL) compared to Glaus' 48 (3rd in the AL). Out of zone plays are counting stats, not percentage stats, so the next step is to look at the number of chances. Glaus played 928 innings, Rolen played 935. Glaus had 204 balls hit into his zone, Rolen had 240. Basically then, Scott Rolen played slightly more, fielded 0.22 more chances within his zone per game (that's calculated over 162 games), and recorded a significantly higher percentage of outs for balls hit in his zone. Defensive conclusion thusfar: Rolen is quite a bit better. I'm sold on the hype.

I didn't go into this stat analysis, such as it is, with an argument that I was hoping to prove, but rather to see what the numbers said and find out just how close these guys are. The conclusion I draw is that Rolen is certainly the better defender but not by as much as I would have thought, especially looking at that odd stat about plays made outside the zone favoring Glaus. I was actually looking for reasons to prop up Glaus' defense, since all the trade analysis you read says that Rolen, who has won seven gold gloves, is considered one of the best all-around third basemen in baseball and Glaus is merely average. That's turn out to be true if you compare each player to their peers, though if you compare the numbers directly against each other, the players have closer numbers than one would expect based on their media reputation. The lesson I learned is that there isn't a massive numeric difference between one of the greatest defensive third basemen ever (only Brooks Robinson has more Gold Gloves) and a guy who's just decent.

Here's some back stats from previous seasons, just out of interest, where Rolen posted the following RZR's:

2006: .767 (1st in the NL) 142 games played.
2005: .794 (DNQ) 56 games played. The leader that year, Morgan Ensberg, finished with .769.
2004: .758 (2nd) 142 games played.

Troy Glaus' RZR's:
2006: .687 (9th in the AL) 153 games played
2005: .713 (8th) 149 games played
2004: .765 (DNQ) 56 games played

Here's a link to the glossary to all those terms by the way, I did my best to understand and present them properly.

So who wins? Glaus is the slightly better offensive player, Rolen is the noticeably better defensive player. The question, one I gladly admit to having failed to answer, is whether the gap between Glaus and Rolen's offense is the same size as the gap between their defense. The conclusion I draw is that the defensive gap is wider, but that can change depending on how the teams they join hinder or benefit their offensive production. For example, hitting behind Pujols (career on-base %: an obscene .420) should help boost his RBI's because Pujols ranked 6th in the NL in walks last year, 4th in intentional walks. By comparison, last year Glaus hit behind Vernon Wells, who, in an injury-plague season, had an OBP of .304 (93rd in the AL, ew) and was 54th in the AL in walks. Still, Rolen sports some pretty impressive fielding numbers, creating a gap I can't see Glaus overcoming, and will benefit himself offensively from a stacked Jays lineup that will offer up plenty of protection. Fielding advantage: Jays.

So who wins? Assuming each player is completely healthy next year (unlikely), the next analytical step is to follow-up that last thought and look at the impact they'll have on their teams. The Blue Jays offense, if they're healthy next year and play to their potential, is loaded. Losing a few OBP points and homeruns is fine since Wells, Thomas, Rios, Overbay, Hill, and Johnson should be able to produce plenty of runs. Their defense, recently ranked by Dayn Perry of Foxsports.com as the BEST IN THE MAJORS last year, is even better in 2008. The Cardinals rid themselves of the LaRussa-Rolen distraction and get a strong offensive player to back up Pujols, one who will presumably benefit from the natural grass surface at Busch Stadium. He's a defensive downgrade and a moderate offensive upgrade. Rolen's contract is for another three years and $36 million, Glaus is owed $12 million for 2008 and has activated his $11.5 million player option for 2009. With both players subject to injury concerns, the shorter contract might be to the advantage of the Cardinals but if both stay healthy, the Jays have third base locked up for three more years.

So who wins? All comes down to who stays healthy. Assuming both players play the same number of games, I think the Jays win because their defense is even better (a big factor considering they're rolling out three young pitchers and their top two, Halladay and Burnett, have strong groundball tendencies) and the moderate offensive downgrade will be overcome by a lineup that ought to be better. The Cardinals' acquisition is still an upgrade because Glaus will be better than an unhappy Rolen was last year. A solid move for Toronto, though by no means a coup since both players were moved not out of opportunity but necessity. Each team benefits, it's just a question of which team will benefit the most. Both players passed their physicals, each team no knows what they're getting, so no excuses as each player has been proclaimed as good to go. That's good news for Jays fans, if my number analysis holds up.