Now the Leafs are playing their way back into playoff contention. Maybe the problem really was Belak, Gill and Kilger. Maybe Leaf fans have been right all along... a chilly thought, isn't it?
I'm tired of writing about the Leafs, this isn't a Leaf blog, I'm not a Leaf fan and I don't particularily care how they do except that I picked them to finish 8th in my hockey pool that isn't for money. I'd write more about the Oilers but really, using what has become a truly ubiquitous cliche, their season "is what it is." They're rebuilding, they've played well lately, their fourth line is cheap and awesome and everybody's hurt. If they can finish 6th last or higher and stay out of the draft lottery, the season's, well it's not a success, but "it is what it is." Expectation will be high next year, not so much because of what the team will be like but just because of how bad the last two season will have been. Right now they don't have the cap space to sign any high-end free agents so unless the draft produces substantial changes (unlikely since the trade deadline is the best place to dump salary and acquire draft picks), the team they have now is the team they'll have next year. That's promising, since this year's team was derailed by injury and youth. That youth will be older and more experienced next year (especially considering how much they'll have played in the latter half of this season) and if the injury virus can possibly find its way three hours south and ten hours southwest, they should be able to compete for the division.
The Northwest division is a weird one, no dominant teams and no real weak links either, at least on paper. Certainly the Oilers this season have been substantially weaker than the other four teams, but that gap would be less if they'd been healthier. I'd even say that Edmonton, given it's youth and injury issues this season, will improve more than any other team from this season to next. The Flames have Huselius, Conroy and Langkow as UFA's for next season and won't be able to sign all three, if even one. The Canucks, barring any substantial change to their offence, will still rely on the Sedins and Luongo for all their wins, though Ryan Kesler should finish with twenty goals this year. They're also in pretty good shape going into next year, with only Markus Naslund and Brenden Morrison set to be UFA's. Colorado has Joe Sakic, Andrew Brunette, John-Michael Liles and Adam Foote to re-sign next year, though Sakic and Foote probably won't go anywhere. They have a good set of young players as well but in the goalie-rich Northwest (Garon, Luongo, Backstrom, and Kiprusoff) they won't be able to leap out front. Minnesota has to re-sign Demitra, Rolston and Keith Carney next year and still doesn't have a ton of scoring (18th in the NHL in total goals and goals-for average, not apalling but when it's always been a problem...). I don't think any of these four teams will fall off the map next year, but none seemed poised to break into the stratosphere with Anaheim, Detroit, Dallas and San Jose.
Edmonton won't make that kind of jump next year either but certainly has the highest upside going into next season. Of course, while being the worst team in the division might mean their upside will carry them to greater growth than the rest, it won't likely carry them beyond. Next year should end up like last season was, at least for a long time: all five teams competing for the division until one team flinches and trades an impending UFA at the deadline (Who'll be next season's Ryan Smyth? Gaborik? Ohlund? Tanguay?). So no bold predictions for next year, not in this division anyways. I'll try to do a set of predictions for next year at the end of the season, then maybe another set just before next season starts. If I remember. Baseball starts soon!
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