Monday, April 12, 2010

Round 1: DING!!!

It's playoff time! Or, as we call it in Edmonton, golf season. Or would, if our seasons weren't over while there's still a foot of snow on the ground. Right, sorry. Other teams!

Western Conference:

1. San Jose vs. Colorado - In the past I've kind of cheered for San Jose. They had some decent players, it's actually a good hockey market and, unless you absolutely hate a team, there's no particular joy in seeing a team choking away its prime seasons. Except this year. Thornton was awful in the Olympics, Marleau was okay early and same thing for Heatley, who must've thought he was playing in the world championships because of all the goals he scored against crappy countries. So screw San Jose, I hope they lose. They won't though, and the whole world can pick this series. San Jose in 5.

2. Chicago vs. Nashville - Man is it hard to care about a series that Nashville's playing in. It just sucks all the energy out. Chicago's a really interesting team, lots of big names, big market, franchise on the comeback, great chance to win their first Cup since 1951, it's ALL good stuff! But pick any other team in the whole CONFERENCE, let alone other playoff teams, and it's worth ten times more of our interest than this. Chicago in 5. Get it over with. Move 'em or fold 'em for God's sakes.

3. Vancouver vs. Los Angeles - I like Los Angeles! They have Ryan Smyth! He is all that is man, no bottle of syrup would last if he were highway patrol. Dustin Brown is a tank, that's guy's awesome, except that Mackenzie, or McGuire maybe, were probably over-selling it when they said that Canada didn't have an answer for Brown when we played the U.S. in the Olympic round robin. We learned that Drew Doughty is Bobby Orr too, and the Kings' goalie is named Quick which is awesome. Will L.A.'s team of coolness counter Vancouver's video game style strategy (cycle, pass to slot, one-time, repeat as necessary)? You know what, I'm going Yes to the upset in this one. Los Angeles in 6.

4. Phoenix vs. Detroit - Another cool series. One team is a pretty inspiring story, incredibly shutting out all the financial disasters going on around them, pulling together as a team, and making the playoffs when, for a while, nobody thought they would. And the other team has to play in a desert! Weird, right? I can't see Phoenix possibly winning here, Detroit is too healthy with three or four players better than Phoenix's best... except that Phoenix's goalie might be the NHL MVP this year. I'd like to see a long series but if Detroit gets a split in Phoenix it's probably over in 6. Let's say that.

Eastern Conference:

1. Washington vs. Montreal - Alex Ovechkin and the Electric Mayhem bring their travelling circus to hockey's greatest cathedral, and then to Montreal for two more games to wrap up the series. The only way this goes more than four games is if Montreal's Marauding Midgets can expose Washington's "defense" and "goaltending." That's unlikely though, especially with GM George McPhee's shrewd pickup of Sheldon Souray at the deadline OH WAIT SORRY GUYZ, Souray broke his hand on Iginla's face, costing him the last half of the season, in a fight that was revenge for Iginla injuring Souray for the FIRST half of the season. Washington still wins (and should still trade John Carlson and Karl Alzner for Souray in the off-season), but I'll give Montreal a game. Caps in 5.

2. New Jersey vs. Philadelphia: With neither shootouts nor Olli Jokinen to worry about, New Jersey would appear to have an edge in many categories. Goaltending, despite Brodeur's struggles against Philly this year (3.38 GAA) is definitely in Jersey's favor and Jersey's defense is better, having allowed 191 goals (NHL best) to Philly's 225 (T-14th best). While Philly scored more goals this year, 236 to 222, Jersey's top three scorers had 82, 67 and 61 points compared to Philly's top three who had 62, 61, and 55. With Jersey having a slight top-end offensive edge, a substantial defensive edge and monstrous on-paper goaltending advantage, this should be an easy series to call as well. Oh, but Philly has Chris Pronger. He'll play 30 minutes a night, in all situations, and will be charged with shutting down Zach Parise who, by comparison, is probably 4'2". That buys two more wins for Philly, especially when you consider that Pronger's powers increase five-fold when playing for an eighth place team with goaltending questions. New Jersey in 7.

3. Buffalo vs. Boston: Ryan Miller is the league's best goalie who doesn't lead the league in anything. He's second in GAA to Tuuka Rask, fourth in wins, second in save percentage (to Tuuka Rask again. Boy, he's good eh?), seventh in shutouts, and seventh in games played. And yet if you were to name your instinctive Vezina trophy winner, who would you say? Yeah, not Rask. He only played 45 games. You'd say Miller, you know you would. So you have the league's consensus Number One goalie against the league's consensus offensive slug. Both teams have good goalies, though Miller's resume is certainly longer and more impressive, only one team can score, and both are pretty close defensively. Still, Zdeno Chara plays for Boston and, like Pronger, will play ALL the time. That alone should cut down on the offensive disparity, but not enough to change the result. Buffalo in 6.

4. Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa: This and Caps-Habs are the premier playoff series in the East by far. On paper this should be a sweep, with Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar, Staal and Fleury up against Spezza, Alfredsson, Karlsson and, um, Brian Elliot. Elliot's been pretty good of course, better than Leclaire: 2.57 GAA vs. 3.20, .909 save % vs. .887. He's also been a little better than Fleury too, who has a slightly higher GAA, 2.65, and a lower save %, .905. Even if goaltending is a wash in this series, the offensive isn't and since Volchenkov and Phillips can play either Crosby and Malkin and not both, scoring is certainly in Pittsburgh's favor. Still, there's something about Ottawa this year... nah. Pittsburgh in 6.

2 comments:

Matt Z. said...

Sharks in 4
Blackhawks in 5
Kings in 6
Red Wings in 7

Capitals in 7
Rangers in 6
Sabres in 7
Penguins in 4

Darth Forehand said...

Kings in 6? Yeah you did! I'm also re-thinking Flyers-New Jersey. Really liking the Rangers goaltending in that one...