Monday, June 30, 2008

Free Agency, RFA's, and a tough goodbye

Start your engines for tomorrow, because that's when teams starting throwing inexplicable amounts of money at old players coming off career seasons in a contract year. Ryan Malone already cashed in, getting seven years and $31.5 million ($4.5 million/year) after seasons of 27, 16, and 22 goals. Not bad. I don't want to be one of those complainers always rolling their eyes at pro athlete contracts, but look at the market. Consider the absolutely childish fit Brian Burke pulled (and continues to pull whenever TSN baits him with questions about Kevin Lowe, which is as often as possible) when Penner got $4.25 million last year. Penner was coming off a season of 29 goals, played all 82 games, hardly saw any powerplay time (only 9 goals on the PP), and is three years younger. You could make the argument that Malone was the more proven commodity, but really, if you're an NHL GM, are you going to throw big money at a guy who scored 29 goals on the third line in his rookie season, or at the guy who scored less while playing with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin? I like Malone, him and Penner are pretty similar players (okay fine, I'd rather have Malone, he broke his nose twice in the same game and barely missed any time so yeah, of course I want him more than the Penner who sleepwalks through way too many shifts), but numbers-wise Penner is the better investment. Of course, Edmonton also paid three picks for Penner, but that's not what Burke said he had a problem with.

So I dunno, Hossa to Vancouver, Jagr to Vladivostok, Sundin to the Leafs (in December though, don't rush Mats!), Campbell to the LEAFS (yeah, out on a limb baby!), Sakic to the Avalanche (duh), Naslund to the Wings (I'm not going to bother checking to see if this is even possible under the cap, but he's Swedish so it's either Vancouver or Detroit), and Demitra to the, um, Senators. It's all madness anyways so it's more fun to watch than try to predict and make sense out of. Who thought the Rangers would get both Drury and Gomez last year? Or that Philly would get Briere, Timonen, and Hartnell? There's no way to predict any of the ridiculousness, so there's a half-serious attempt before the storm hits.

Since Kevin Lowe became the first GM to ever, in the history of the known universe, sign a player to an offer sheet, the talk around the NHL, or rather from the brilliant analysts on TV, is how the whole free agency landscape has changed. And that's somewhat true, since teams are now locking up their young stars, sometimes after just their second seasons, to long-term deals to avoid any poaching (ex. Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin's is coming soon, Ryan Getzlaf, Corry Perry). So rather than having a player go through a standard three year entry-level contract, then a moderate raise in a no-competition negotiation, before finally cashing in when they reach unrestricted free-agency, they get rich after year two. So yeah, things have changed for the young stars, but have things changed for the not-ready-for-primetime players? And what is this change based on? An actual change in strategy or just fear and paranoia?

If you account for the actual events that have occurred to stimulate this sudden shift in free agency and career contract structure, there haven't been too many. There's probably a reason for that. Lowe signed two players to offer sheets last year, one team matched (Buffalo with Vanek) and one didn't (Anaheim of course). This was BIG NEWS, because this NEVER HAPPENS. Actually though, it does. Trivia: other players have been signed to offer sheets before. Yeah I know. Shocking. Some actually changed teams. But only now, because Brian Burke threw the most public tantrum since I couldn't find the droids I was looking for, has the entire salary structure in the NHL apparently changed. It's flattering to think that Kevin Lowe is the most influential GM in NHL history, but come one. This whole fuss is still about an irregularity because non-superstar RFA's just don't get poached that often. It's not like everything will change because Lowe did it, and to suggest it will is to suggest that GM's watched Lowe and thought "Really? You can DO that? I'M gonna do that TOO, I HATE sitting through two boring-ass days at the draft each year. Looks like an extra round of golf!" There was Kesler two years ago, and Chris Gratton and Joe Sakic before that in 1997. That's it, and to re-emphasize, there's a good reason for this. It's a pretty big risk and a really big cost to go hunting for young RFA's when, if you draft properly, you could end up with someone younger, cheaper, and possibly better.

Some sad news today though. Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene were traded for All-Star defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky. Stoll is coming off a year where he had 36 points in
81 games, a -23 plus/minus, and saw his role diminish into a third-line checker, both because of performance and the emergence of Cogliano and Gagner. Greene had one assist in 41 games and played on the third defensive pairing, though does project as a 4th defenseman. Visnovsky had more points than both last year (41), and had seasons of 58 and 67 points before that. Lots of people hate this trade for Edmonton, thinking that the Oilers got softer or something. Those people are idiots, and are happy to prove it by posting their "thoughts" on TSN's Your Call. Edmonton clearly wins this trade, they get one of the top 10 defensemen in the NHL and only gives up depth players whose roles are already filled. Just like the Pronger trade of years ago, they gave up some depth to get top-end talent. Great trade.

It's a sad trade for the same reason the Pronger and Peca trades were bittersweet. Edmonton lost Eric Brewer and Mike York and later traded away Marty Reasoner for Sergei Samsonov at the trade deadline. Obviously the 2006 Finals run was amazing, an entire spring of uncharted territory for a city that was starved for hockey success. Edmonton earned it, having gone through the agony of nearly losing the team, trading away fan favorite after fan favorite, suffering the humiliation of being one of the NHL's great franchises yet being on the outside of all serious hockey talk. Free agency, deep playoff runs, individual awards, these were not discussions that involved the city of Edmonton. 2006 was a reward for a lot of suffering, not everything we wanted but far more than we could have ever hoped for. And yet despite the success, the attention from the entire hockey world, the awe and praise for 16,839 Oh Canada-singing fans, the re-ascension of the long-dormant Oilers into a major force in the NHL once again, something was missing. A lot of players went into that Finals run, but a lot more of them weren't around to reap rewards borne from years of futility. 2006 was about Pronger, Roloson, Smyth, Smith, and Horcoff, but it was also about Weight, Joseph, Marchant and the recently traded Reasoner, Brewer and York. I predict right now that the Oilers will win the Northwest and make some noise in the playoffs this season. It'll be great to watch, another generous reward for two pretty tough seasons, but it'll be missing a few pieces. I long thought of Stoll as a future Oiler captain and Greene at times indeed looked like the heir apparent to Jason Smith. After Ryan Smyth, Stoll was my favorite Oiler, and any success the team has with Visnovsky will always have the same twinge of sadness that the 2006 Oiler team had. Godspeed good sirs, you'll be missed!

Saturday, June 21, 2008

The Draft!

Got to watch the draft while at work, and glad I did. Very entertaining, lots of trades with perhaps more to come. Calgary did what was necessary and moved Tanguay's salary while picking up Mike Cammalleri. There had been rumors earlier about Jarret Stoll possibly going to L.A. for Cammalleri, which would have been an amazing pickup for Edmonton. Calgary downgrades slightly I'd say, but saves some cap space to presumably go towards Daymond Langkow. The Leafs give permission to the Canadiens to talk to Mats Sundin, though after Sundin made it clear he wanted to be a Leaf and didn't believe in being a rental and abandoning his team, it would be hard to see him actually going there, or anywhere else. I think he'll either retire or re-sign in Toronto. Either would be fine, it would pretty hard for Leaf fans to see him refuse a trade at the deadline, one that would have brought the Leafs a huge package of picks and prospects, only to see him bolt at the end of the year. Olli Jokinen to Phoenix was a surprise, kind of looked like they were going to stick with their rebuilding plans as they appeared to be going well, but looks like they're going for a playoff spot right now, and certainly more if that Southwest division fades. More trades are rumored and Edmonton has some names in play so maybe today there'll be more news.

The draft itself went as planned as far as player order, but teams were trading up and down like crazy. You have to wonder about the mindset of the New York Islanders though, here they are at 5 with a chance to pick either Luke Schenn or Nikita Filitov and they trade down not once, but TWICE down to the 9th spot. Sure, accumulating depth picks in later rounds is nice but there's something to be said for drafting top-end, possibly NHL-ready talent. Especially for the Islanders, at team with few blue-chippers besides Kyle Okposo. The Leafs did well in moving up to get Schenn, who I thought was Canada's best defenseman at the World Juniors, the Oilers did the expected and grabbed Jordan Eberle, and the rest of the teams made picks that made Pierre McGuire happy, which is the most important thing. Because this is THE DEEPEST DRAFT IN YEARS presumably most teams will be labelled "winners," but I have to think the Islanders blew it by not picking the best player. Drafting is about asset accumulation, and those assets are never rated more highly than they are at draft time. Grab Filitov or Schenn and trade them later, you might be able to get more for them than just trading the draft position. I still remember when Edmonton had a chance to draft Zack Parise, they instead traded down to get a few extra picks that became Marc Pouliot and JF Jacques. Jacques has fallen behind, Pouliot played well at the end of last season but Parise has 63 goals the last two seasons. Yeah, mistakes get made, but everybody thought Parise was a much better player than Pouliot, so why not grab Parise and flip him for somebody else, and still draft Pouliot later? Then at least you've made a trade where you sold high, rather than selling just a draft slot. It's just odd to see teams tank at the end of the year to get a higher draft slot, then trade it away for depth picks.

Cito Gaston is the new manager of the Toronto Blue Jays! The most successful coach in team history, also described as a terrific batting coach, also brings back Gene Tenace as hitting coach, who's probably the best hitting coach the team has ever had. So things are looking up!...except that their first game, against Godawful Pittsburgh Terribles, sees them go 12 innings without scoring a run for their best pitcher. I don't know about you, but I LIKE steriods in baseball.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Potpourri

The news that Glenn Healy will be leaving TSN to take a job with the NHLPA will undoubtedly do greater wonders for TSN's ratings than any theme song acquisition could. Just fabulous news; just as TSN's hockey coverage will enjoy even greater exposure this year the broadcast quality will improve considerably, even if Healy's spot is left entirely vacant. "I'm Chris Cuthbert along with Maggie the Monkey, here in beautiful Raleigh...."

The sale of the Edmonton Oilers to Bruce Wayne is complete. Who knows what this will really mean for the team and city. Maybe nothing. Maybe he's crazy. But maybe not. His promises were spend to the cap, pitch in for a new rink, and build a new training facility at the U of A. Well, the team already spends near the cap, arena development is proceeding slowly, and good for the U of A I guess, since that won't really benefit the average person. Yes yes, raising the city's profile as a world class sports city and all that, but so would a giant Easter Egg, or a giant dinosaur, or a giant whatever in God's name this thing is. Check that link out. I'll wait.

Toronto Blue Jays baseball, as of today: 12th in the AL in RBI's, 13th in homeruns and 12th in runs scored despite being 5th in OBP, 3rd in walks and 6th in stolen bases. So they get runners on, they often advance without sacrificing an out, then...nothing. The team is two games below .500, 9.0 games out of first place (and currently in last), despite having a pitching staff with the 3rd best earned run average, 3rd fewest runs allowed, 3rd fewest homeruns, and the 3rd lowest opponents' batting average. Feel the excitement!

NHL draft on Friday, MSNBC has the Oilers picking some nobody Swede or Swiss or something instead of local AJHL star Joe Colbourne or flashy center Jordan Eberle. Yeah, that's why nobody reads their hockey coverage. TSN promises a ten-hour draft preview on Thursday, where Dreger and McKenzie articulate reasoned analysis of each team's needs, Duthie will mock them and himself, Milbury will predict that Tampa will trade the top pick for Joni Pitkonen, who will then be signed to a 15 year contract, and McGuire will periodically come roaring into frame, inches from the camera, telling all of Canada how important it is to provide puck support and be Dion Phaneuf. Duthie will raise one eyebrow and segue to Darren Dutchyshen with a pithy comment. Dutchy will talk about boxing and Canada changes the channel. Meanwhile, at Sportsnet, Millard will be covered in spit while Kypreos argues for the immediate trade of Stamkos since, in three years, Tampa won't be able to afford both him AND another player, while Watters bellows his agreement while blaming Richard Peddie for 9/11. Tumbleweeds ripple through the studio.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

At least Americans are watching hockey...

I don't post many videos but this one belongs here. Take it away, good sir:

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

"The Hockey Song?"

Who the hell calls it "The Hockey Song?" TSN does, now. It's now official, after some hope that CBC might still be able to renegotiate a deal that would save the Hockey Night in Canada theme, CTV stepped up and "saved" the song by purchasing it from "legendary" octogenarian jingler Paul Anka, I mean, Dolores Claman. How noble.

I have pretty mixed feelings about this. I'm glad the song will survive, somewhere, but this whole process really illustrates the campiness of the product. It's a 30 second jingle, written 40 years ago. How much money should a person honestly believe that to be worth? I'm sure CBC isn't blameless in all this, considering their history of penny-pinching Canada's favorite program, but really, consider the balls on this woman, holding CBC ransom for between $2.5 and $3 million dollars after 40 years of collecting royalties for a song she was ludicrously lucky enough to have land on Canada's favorite show, and holds its inflated value as a result. What she failed to understand, as will TSN when they realize ratings haven't skyrocketed as a result of their use of the song, is that nobody gives a crap about the song itself. Oh we love the song, it is Canada's second national anthem, it's justifiably considered iconic and a unifying part of Canadiana. Except that there's something much more iconic, of far greater value and historical significance than the song, and that's the fucking show itself. The song won't retain much of it's lustre when it's divorced from HNIC because Canadians only like the song because of what we associate it with. We watched Hockey Night in Canada before 1968 (since 1952 actually), I'm pretty sure we can manage without your little jingle.

Hmm, maybe my feelings are more "numerous" than mixed. It's sad to see a part of Canadian tradition fractured over greed, but when you're reading public negotiations and leveraging of a cultural symbol for more royalties it's easier to just say the hell with it. The audience will determine the value of the product, not a copyright company or Scott Moore. I don't think there'll be any significant ratings changes as a result of the song being used by another channel, I can't see anyone getting confused and thinking that now Hockey Night In Canada is on TSN and Ron Maclean has been replaced by wit-machine James Duthie, and now the show is on two or three days a week instead of Saturday night. Despite holding this opinion now (and holding it vengefully as in the paragraph above), it'll be very interesting to see if this will hold true. Maybe this will change the hockey viewership balance of power in Canada. Maybe that old hag was right. Nah.

The other issue with the song changing channels is the type of production attraction in question. The appeal of HNIC is tradition, knowing you'll see the same features as were shown twenty years ago. Typical first intermission interviews of some kid playing his first game on HNIC and saying Hi to his parents and friends back home in Moose Jaw, talking about how they watched HNIC growing up and how amazing it is to be on it now. Don Cherry ignoring (pick one) Crosby/Sundin/Jagr/Lemieux's first period hat trick and instead showing Gary Roberts blocking a shot on his one and only shift, then forgetting that sports are a distraction from the real world and forcing us to relive a recent soldier's death in (pick one) Iraq/Kosovo/Iraq/Afghanistan. The round table discussions in the second intermission where Al Strachan's "sources" are saying that Mats Sundin has agreed to waive his no-trade clause and will be going to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of the Japanese Pacific League while Scott Morrison wonders how hard it would be to throw Strachan out a window. The folksy video intro, highlighting HNIC's past, kids playing pond hockey and a general casual, old-fashioned feel to the broadcast. The show knows its appeal and plays on it, and that's fine with us. The former theme song, one has to think, is only a small part of that appeal.

Contrast that with TSN's broadcast, a super-hip, cutting-edge production featuring seizure-inducing opening graphics, a clever and ironic host, pop culture references galore and a massive staff of newsbreaking "insiders." Well okay, just Dreger and McKenzie, but that's two more than CBC and Sportsnet. To be sure, this is an ESPN-style show for the spastic ADHD generation. Mixing that with Canada's best known symbol of sports tradition with make for interesting gumbo. The saving grace is that TSN's previous hockey theme was pretty lame and will now get a big boost, as did their play-by-play announcing when Chris Cuthbert came over and Glenn Healy was tragically eaten by a pack of wild boars in my imagination. Don Cherry did some "work" for ESPN during these playoffs, wonder if a few more years will see him and Milbury beating the hell out of each other while Duthie spins a pun.


Oh, and who cares what Tiger Woods thinks about the NHL and hockey in general. He excels at a sports that real athletes play when they retire. There, add that to the multitude of cheap shots he's taken after knocking hockey. I'd like to think that mine's at least better than Milbury calling him Tiger Wuss. I thought hockey shows had writers?

Thursday, June 5, 2008

June 5th, not bad

Nice to see the season end as early as it did. Much better than in 2006 when the Oilers-Canes series lasted until about the middle of September. Kudos to Wings I guess, but that's enough of that for a while now. Time for that franchise to have a prolonged slump, the place wasn't sold for early round games and I don't know if it was the TV feed or not, but the building sounded awfully quiet. Much louder in Pittsburgh anyways, though I did notice that when watching games on CBC HD, the crowd noise was much more drowned out than on regular CBC. So well done to the Detroit Braves, now get lost.

Apparently the Penguins are going to have to trade Malkin, let Hossa go, raise ticket prices to match oil and whore Sidney Crosby out to a thousand fat chicks just to get under the salary cap, which seems to be $8.71 million dollars. This is so stupid and yet it's everyone's favorite rumour. I'm listening to Nick Kypreos right now, yelling away at Darren Millard about how STUPID it would be to pour $20 million dollars into two players in the cap system. Next to Nick is Bill Watters, vigoriously agreeing and calling Richard Peddie a rapist. Oh wait, a commercial break for Millard to clean spit off himself. Ug. Ray Shero is the GM of the Penguins, and a regular reader of this blog. Listen to me, Mr. Shero. Your team was lucky enough to plummit into depths of Godawfulness reached only by the Leafs in the fantasies of the rest of Canada. As a result, you've been able to draft in the top two four years in a row. You have two of the three best young players in the NHL, and they both play center. You are SO LUCKY to have the CHANCE at having and re-signing two players good enough to merit $8.7 million a year (for Crosby). Like Denzel says in Training Day:
"Okay, the dick lines up straight like that right? To the right of it and to the left of it are pockets, right? In those pockets are money. Look in either one of 'em, pay the bill."

Now, if you want to trade Malkin because he had (until the finals) a terrific playoff, an MVP-nominated season, took over the Penguins midseason when Crosby got hurt, and established himself as either the 1 or 1A center Pittsburgh, well that's different. That's not what Nick and Watters are saying by the way, they think he HAS to go because having the two best young centers in the NHL, with the cap leaping every year and a new arena coming to Pittsbugh in two years (I think), is foolish. It's a different argument to say he should go because it's the best time to trade him. I don't like fantasy sports mentality lots of people take with team rosters, the coldness that goes into discussing trading players, but whenever you're talking about trading a player at his peak there's always a reason to listen to that argument. That's Malkin now, he's at the absolute peak of his tradeability, the only way he'd have higher trade value is if he was already locked into a long-term contract. That's impossible, given that this is his second season. So perhaps the fantasy mentality isn't a bad one in this case.

Kypreos, in his infinite SCREAMING, I mean, WISDOM, apparently was told there was an offer from Los Angeles, Malkin for Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar. That's a good trade, a GREAT trade even, if you look at it in a vacuum. If you're Shero, you certainly consider it if you lose Hossa because you're replacing a big winger with another big winger, albeit one with less scoring skill but much more checking ability. That trade also looks good, even necessary, if the Penguins don't re-sign Ryan Malone either. Malone's a restricted FA who, if you listen to Kypreos and Watters, and you have to because if God spoke to you directly it wouldn't be as loud, will want $5 million. If you make that trade, you're committed to Malone, Fleury, Stall, Orpik, etc. and, this is my whole point here, if you're going to trade Malkin, a 21-year old 106 point player, you better be fucking sure. And not just sure of the trade itself, but of the effect that trade will have on your team. This proposed deal probably won't happen and is only meant as an example to illustrate this fact: there's two kinds of trades. Ones you can look at on their own, just the players and picks involved, and ones that you have to evaluate based on not just the transaction, but the ripple effect afterwards. If you trade Malkin to sign Fleury, Stall, Malone, you better not just get the right players back but hope that those three are worth it as well.

With hockey done and the eternal NBA season mercifully ending soon, baseball takes center stage. BJ Ryan has blown his last two save opportunities, including today where, after the retiring the first two batters, blew a two-run lead to the Yankees. I don't like seeing people lose their jobs, I like organizational stability with coaches and managers having enough time to implement a team culture, like Joe Torre in New York or Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone (until 2005). That said, JP Riccardi has to go at the end of this year. Manager John Gibbons was on pretty thin ice last year but has shown a greater willingness this year to try a few things, like stealing bases, hit-and-run, and bunt. Now for most teams those are bad things, products of old-fashioned ignorance of the percentages that exist within baseball over the course of a season. For the Blue Jays, a team who can't score runs (4th worst in runs in the AL), can't hit with runners on base (4th worst in runs batted in) and can't hit homeruns (3rd worst), these are necessary risks you have to take. Any port in a storm.

Back to Riccardi. Releases struggling Frank Thomas who they still have to pay $8 million to hit for Oakland, and in the off-season released Reed Johnson, a favorite of all Jays fans, in favor of Shannon Stewart. The choice was Stewart's offense over Johnson's defense, except that at this point Johnson is on pace to hit .266 with 5 homers and 65 RBI's, while Stewart's on pace for .253, 3 HR's and 37 RBI's. Johnson is also one year removed from a .390 OBP, so his offensive production is just FINE thank you, he has better outfield range than Stewart and can actually get a ball from the outfield to home plate without looking like he needs to lie down with a damp cloth afterwards. Riccardi also overpaid Vernon Wells, WAY overpaid AJ Burnett, and made the bizarre decision to give John MacDonald a contract extension, then sign David Eckstein who can hit a little better but defend worse, THEN trade for Marco Scutaro ALL TO PLAY SHORTSTOP. Scutaro's been a pleasant surprise actually, Eckstein is short and tries hard and people like that I guess, and MacDonald is, of course, the best defensive shortstop in baseball (no I won't source that because while he's pretty friggin' close, no stat in the world will back me up on that). But how many mediocre shortstops/utility infielders does one team need? The payroll keeps getting higher and while the pitching is fantastic, it's coming pretty cheap so all the cash is going into the team's terrible "offense." What happens when Marcum, McGowan and Litsch want new contracts? Oh, and their draft record sucks and they never bring in any impact Canadians (that's draft-wise, Stairs doesn't count). Anything else?

Raffi Torres, Denis Grebeshkov, Rob Schremp, Taylor Chorney and a 1st round pick for Evgeni Malkin. Yeah? Of course "yeah," because this year's draft is SHAPING UP TO BE THE DEEPEST DRAFT IN YEARS. If you don't believe me, flip on Hockeycentral and YOU WILL SOON BE A TRUE BELIEVER! KALI MAH!

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

....

Not much time to post anything these days, I'd like to work on that over and under-rated player list for the next post but because those are lists you see everywhere I feel the need to find a different angle. Or, as Impressed Reader Matt hinted at, which players will have the biggest drop-off next year, which may be a more interesting way of looking at over and under-rated players. Yeah. That's what'll happen. Next time...

Go Seven Game Finals! And a three-way tie in my pool!