Friday, April 30, 2010

Round 2: DING!!!!

I love the playoffs!  God I love them!  More than sunshine and Hawkins cheezies!  I love them so damn much I couldn't be bothered finding out when the second round started!  Yep, that's true love and not that stuff they talk about in Nicolas Sparks novels, but only because hockey doesn't have cancer.

All is not lost though!  Wait, were you thinking all was lost or something?  Jeez.  It's spring.  Relax okay?  Okay?  Okay.  Instead, we're going to try something different.  I'm going to make all my predictions for the second round based entirely on the first games.  I guess it's not that different, since they do that after every game anyways on TSN and Sportsnet, but it'll be different here because we're going to attempt to see, with a short sample size of course, exactly how indicative one game is of the rest of the series.  I'm less interested in my own predicting ability, since obviously it should be much better than the first round (and if it's not I can simply blame the team that choked away a 1-0 series lead!), and more interested in how much we can predict based on one game.

Detroit vs. San Jose.

I didn't watch this game at all until the last three minutes so we're not off to a good start.  I was at work and even Bell TV didn't think the game was on, it thought I was watching Sportscentre.  San Jose wins 4-3 but led 3-0 at one point, so we can easily conclude that Thornton played soft, Nabakov probably only faced five shots and Joe Pavelski incredibly managed to put up four goals and four assists.  A cursory glance at the boxscore shows that some of these things are not true and Thornton in fact put up a +36DD Softness Quotient which is, of course, league average.  If you were to pick this series on mental toughness you'd take Detroit in three, but given that the Sharks overcame the Dan Boyle goal against Colorado (and really, the series wasn't that close afterwards), maybe San Jose is pulling it together.  Even though they almost choked away last night's game, maybe it's a sigh of San Jose's new found ability to handle adversity instead of shrink away from it.  Of course, Detroit handled way more adversity this year than San Jose, and have players who always show up in the playoffs, as evidenced last night, so this is a tricky one.  Detroit in 7, goaltending issues on both sides cancel themselves out and Detroit's superior net-crashers are the difference.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Round 1 Recap

Western Conference:

San Jose vs. Colorado - Whew.  That was close eh?  Then, suddenly, it wasn't at all as San Jose outscored Colorado 10-2 in the last two games.  So I was off by one game in my prediction, thanks to stupid Dan Boyle, but otherwise not a bad prediction.  Sharks-Wings should be just awesome, if San Jose can keep their heads out of their asses long enough.

Chicago vs. Nashville - NOT OVER SOON ENOUGH.  Didn't these games, whether the games were in Chicago or Nashville, just look terrible on TV?  Too dark or something, like there was nobody else there.  Gross.  Yuck.  Play a real hockey teams now plz.

Vancouver vs. Los Angeles - This was my big swing and miss, though if the Kings had held those third period leads I'd be dead on.  This was the series I watched the most and yeah, Drew Doughty is pretty good eh?  Great to actually get some prolonged exposure, it's pretty tiresome to see how people just jump on the "he's the next Bobby Orr" because that's what they've read online or heard on TSN.  It was the worst around the Olympics, all the self-styled pundits who'll assure you of the future greatness of a player that, come on, there's no WAY you've actually seen him play.  I'm thinking here of people I work with.  But yeah, great puckhandler, great passer, creates space so well on the powerplay or when trapped in his own zone, and physical too.  Not enough though.  Stupid not-good-enough-conspiracy.  Let's see the NHL really flex their muscles when Vancouver plays Chicago, a team Bettman surely has marked for the finals.

Detroit vs. Phoenix -Pretty close here too, great showing for Phoenix and you know they probably win if Shane Doan doesn't get hurt.  Going by what I heard on the radio, the Coyote/Jets franchise has never won a game 7.  James Duthie had a great line about how since Detroit had a bad record in day games, like 2-8 or something, that the NHL should change game 7 to an afternoon like game 6 was.  That the league could own a team the entire season, and into the playoffs where said league can influence the schedule, is pretty bush.  Not bush like being allowed to own two CFL teams or anything, but pretty close.  Now with the two who-cares teams out in the first round (Nashville and Phoenix) we can start some real hockey.

Eastern Conference:

Washington vs. Montreal - Just.  Wow.  I wanted to see an Ovechkin-Pronger matchup in the second round, then of course the epic Washington-Pittsburgh Eastern final, but Halak... oh man.  Washington became a pretty hard team to cheer for in game 7 too; how many times did Ovechkin take the puck from his own zone or blue line, skate up the wing, and take a wrist shot with the defender as a screen.  EVERY time.  Drive the net for God's sakes!  Draw a penalty!  Take a hit!  It's hard to accuse Ovechkin of a lack of effort, but when you watch last night's game you can easily accuse him of lacking creativity and being way too stubborn.  Did you see the fans leaving when Montreal went up two goals with five minutes left?  Inexcusable.  A bad hockey city that merely masqueraded as a good one for the last year or so.  Can't hope for you to win when you're team fires Jason Blake-wrist shots all game and your fans bail.

New Jersey vs. Philadelphia - Well I bombed this one.  Not sure what else to say.  All that stuff that made Philly look good on paper in the off-season, and bad during the regular season, sure looked REALLY good against the Devils.  Without Gagne and Carter for at least a few weeks (and Carter done for the playoffs I think I heard) who knows how much further they can go.

Buffalo vs. Boston - Like Philly-Jersey, the Play Your Big Defenseman All The Damn Time Stratagem was a good one.  For a team that didn't blow a third period lead all season (!!!!), Buffalo sure looked soft in those two third period Bruin comebacks.  Tuukka Rask also takes out the Olympic Hero (who, um, lost by the way), showing that the playoffs are where trends go to die (blown leads, teams who can't score suddenly flipping a switch).  I really didn't mind getting this one wrong, it'll be nice to see Marc Savard able to play in the playoffs since he's apparently been cleared. 

Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa - I did pick them in six but this and Vancouver-LA might've been the most exciting first-round series.  A great show by Ottawa, they played as well as they possibly could.  Reminded me of the old Edmonton-Dallas series where the Oilers would try hard, hit like crazy, hit a few posts, then make one mistake and the game would be over.  Does Ottawa trade a goalie in the off-season now?  Perhaps in exchange for a veteran one with an exaggerated back problem, super-short term salary and mild propensity to be "festive" before driving during his injury rehab?


I finished the first round with a paltry 4-4 record, but when there's three upsets in the East I can't imagine that many people did much better.  I should have been 5-3 but I had to take that gamble on Los Angeles, after all, how easy is it to feel contempt for a city that declares a special day after winning a first-round series?

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Comments Part II

Product testing has been completed. 

Comments

I didn't realize this, but apparently to add comments you have to input a whole bunch of stuff like email address and another email address. I'll try to find the setting to change that, even I wouldn't comment here if I had to do all that stuff.

What's a "map?" Oh, you mean one of those things a person can be "all over?"

Handy infomercial tip. Get a PalmWallet! It'll hold EVERYTHING in one tiny space in your pocket! Like, everything that you used to need two full suitcases for will now fit comfortably in the back of those Dockers! Pretty sweet, eh? Yep, it sure is one all-in-one solution! Oh, and if you buy now, you get a second one FREE!

First off, I neglected to mention New Jersey's big trade acquisition Ilya Kovalchuk in my playoff predictions. That was dumb, obviously, but I'm not sure how much of a difference he'll make in that defense-first system. If Jersey wins it'll be because of Brodeur and their defense holding up and not so much because of guys like Parise or Kovalchuk. But I still should've brought him up, he did have 27 points in 27 games since the trade. I am, as always, an idiot.

The big news last night, of course, was the NHL Draft Lottery. The draft is clearly the Super Bowl of the NHL season, both in importance and in hype, especially when you consider the parallels between how both leagues figure out the teams then wait, like, forever before getting to the big day. It's just too bad we have to wait through all that meaningless spring hockey before we get there. Hockey in JUNE?!? Lordly-loo that makes my pacemaker smart. These kids today. Cold weather. Uphill both ways. Etc.

With the Oilers drafting first overall, like I wrote before, I think they either take Hall or trade down to take Seguin. I don't think they take Seguin first overall because there's more demand for Hall later, and they'd be smart to exploit their leverage. Boston also has some cap space, depending on how they re-sign Wheeler, Boychuck, etc. The dream for Edmonton would be to get both; they've got lots of wingers coming up in the system so one of Hemsky or Penner could be available (I might prefer Hemsky, Edmonton needs one big player) and one of their smaller prospects, some draft picks, whatever. It would take a huge offer to get that pick out of Boston of course, I'm not suggesting Hemsky and Cogliano gets that deal done, but you'd have to think the price would be a little lower trading that pick to Edmonton rather than to a division or conference rival. I just hope that if the pick is Seguin, and I've been seduced into thinking it should be because of his position, he doesn't bust. If he's only a good NHL player, that's fine. Hall looks sure-fire, it would kill this city if Edmonton passed on the better player and took the other sure-fire only to have it jam.

It reminds me of Moneyball, whichever chapter where Michael Lewis talks about Oakland's mandate of only drafting college players. In some case in the draft, you'd run into a case where the college player is good but a high-schooler might be GREAT. The A's, being the cash-strapped ugly step-child of MLB (one of many!), couldn't afford to take risks on pipe dreams and fairy dust and would therefore draft the college player because they'd played longer and there was a greater statistical sample size. Play it safe, don't waste picks going for the homerun. Now Hall and Seguin are pretty close, but are the Oilers interested in playing Moneyball? Hall's resume is pretty decorated and has played an extra season, whereas Seguin's is just starting. There's more evidence of Hall's future stardom, so by definition Seguin is the greater risk because he's the greater unknown. Plus, if Edmonton can't clear out some of their roster redundancies they might put Seguin back in junior, let him dominate another year, play in the World Juniors, and not waste a year of entry level contract. That's fine, the Oilers don't need either prospect to be any good next year, but if Seguin can't crack the roster and Hall scores 30 goals it puts a lot more pressure on Seguin the following year. Also, in spite of everyone in Edmonton saying they're willing to rebuild properly and be patient, the opposite is true. We want the 1980's to start NEXT YEAR DAMMIT, and God help Lowe and Tambellini if it doesn't. This is driving me crazy.

Sheldon Souray wants to be traded
? Really? Huh, nobody knew that. Wow. Makes my pacemaker smart, getting shocks like that. I really think the only person who didn't know Sheldon Souray wants to be traded was Sheldon Souray. He proved that by getting into a stupid fight with Iginla right and getting hurt before the deadline when there were apparently teams willing to trade for him. There's two issues, totally separate, going on with his comments to Mark Spector: Should he have said anything and Was he right. The first one's easy. No, you should not make trade demands public and no you should not trash the organization before leaving it (for the second time). The timing was brutal too, right before the big draft announcment, totally coloring what should have been a happy, positive press conference. Was he right though? Dude, who knows. He was pretty specific in his criticisms though, and Tambellini's typically tepid, lukewarm, (Who's that sad dog? With the rain cloud or whatever? He's blue? If only there was some sort of Internet search thingy, with which one could use engines to find things about stuff) response didn't help the perception that Oiler management is aloof and displays the emotional range of cold to frigid. These are the kinds of things that make fans flip out. It's one thing to suck on the ice, you can turn that around. It's another thing to be a northern city that's cold and windy without much to do, you can't help that. You can sure as hell can help how you treat players though; no matter how much money they make they should be allowed to repair a surgically repaired shoulder without being harangued into playing. If that part was true, and if it's part of an ongoing behavioral pattern in Oiler management, then screw those guys and clean house. I'm the guy who wants the team to get better WITH Lowe and see his legacy in Edmonton recover, but if this is a sound description of the atmosphere surrounding the players (and, by extension, the real reason why free agents allegedly won't come to Edmonton), well screw that. If a change in management means an immediate improvement in the free agent quality we can attract then sorry guys, team first. I'm indifferent to Tambellini's legacy, if you were wondering why I left him out.

One last thought on the Draft Lottery coverage. Peter Chiarelli has to change his look. Just sayin...























Right? Okay, now compare him to that guy from Sex and the City whose name I certainly do not know:































And finally to Tyler Stewart of the Barenaked Ladies:































See? Even Gary Bettman can't tell the difference! "Hey you! Hey, in the eyes when you talk to me! Little lower... Okay! This guy? Let him in, he can eat whatever he wants on me! Why? TWO first round picks! Yeah, BOTH years!"


Monday, April 12, 2010

Round 1: DING!!!

It's playoff time! Or, as we call it in Edmonton, golf season. Or would, if our seasons weren't over while there's still a foot of snow on the ground. Right, sorry. Other teams!

Western Conference:

1. San Jose vs. Colorado - In the past I've kind of cheered for San Jose. They had some decent players, it's actually a good hockey market and, unless you absolutely hate a team, there's no particular joy in seeing a team choking away its prime seasons. Except this year. Thornton was awful in the Olympics, Marleau was okay early and same thing for Heatley, who must've thought he was playing in the world championships because of all the goals he scored against crappy countries. So screw San Jose, I hope they lose. They won't though, and the whole world can pick this series. San Jose in 5.

2. Chicago vs. Nashville - Man is it hard to care about a series that Nashville's playing in. It just sucks all the energy out. Chicago's a really interesting team, lots of big names, big market, franchise on the comeback, great chance to win their first Cup since 1951, it's ALL good stuff! But pick any other team in the whole CONFERENCE, let alone other playoff teams, and it's worth ten times more of our interest than this. Chicago in 5. Get it over with. Move 'em or fold 'em for God's sakes.

3. Vancouver vs. Los Angeles - I like Los Angeles! They have Ryan Smyth! He is all that is man, no bottle of syrup would last if he were highway patrol. Dustin Brown is a tank, that's guy's awesome, except that Mackenzie, or McGuire maybe, were probably over-selling it when they said that Canada didn't have an answer for Brown when we played the U.S. in the Olympic round robin. We learned that Drew Doughty is Bobby Orr too, and the Kings' goalie is named Quick which is awesome. Will L.A.'s team of coolness counter Vancouver's video game style strategy (cycle, pass to slot, one-time, repeat as necessary)? You know what, I'm going Yes to the upset in this one. Los Angeles in 6.

4. Phoenix vs. Detroit - Another cool series. One team is a pretty inspiring story, incredibly shutting out all the financial disasters going on around them, pulling together as a team, and making the playoffs when, for a while, nobody thought they would. And the other team has to play in a desert! Weird, right? I can't see Phoenix possibly winning here, Detroit is too healthy with three or four players better than Phoenix's best... except that Phoenix's goalie might be the NHL MVP this year. I'd like to see a long series but if Detroit gets a split in Phoenix it's probably over in 6. Let's say that.

Eastern Conference:

1. Washington vs. Montreal - Alex Ovechkin and the Electric Mayhem bring their travelling circus to hockey's greatest cathedral, and then to Montreal for two more games to wrap up the series. The only way this goes more than four games is if Montreal's Marauding Midgets can expose Washington's "defense" and "goaltending." That's unlikely though, especially with GM George McPhee's shrewd pickup of Sheldon Souray at the deadline OH WAIT SORRY GUYZ, Souray broke his hand on Iginla's face, costing him the last half of the season, in a fight that was revenge for Iginla injuring Souray for the FIRST half of the season. Washington still wins (and should still trade John Carlson and Karl Alzner for Souray in the off-season), but I'll give Montreal a game. Caps in 5.

2. New Jersey vs. Philadelphia: With neither shootouts nor Olli Jokinen to worry about, New Jersey would appear to have an edge in many categories. Goaltending, despite Brodeur's struggles against Philly this year (3.38 GAA) is definitely in Jersey's favor and Jersey's defense is better, having allowed 191 goals (NHL best) to Philly's 225 (T-14th best). While Philly scored more goals this year, 236 to 222, Jersey's top three scorers had 82, 67 and 61 points compared to Philly's top three who had 62, 61, and 55. With Jersey having a slight top-end offensive edge, a substantial defensive edge and monstrous on-paper goaltending advantage, this should be an easy series to call as well. Oh, but Philly has Chris Pronger. He'll play 30 minutes a night, in all situations, and will be charged with shutting down Zach Parise who, by comparison, is probably 4'2". That buys two more wins for Philly, especially when you consider that Pronger's powers increase five-fold when playing for an eighth place team with goaltending questions. New Jersey in 7.

3. Buffalo vs. Boston: Ryan Miller is the league's best goalie who doesn't lead the league in anything. He's second in GAA to Tuuka Rask, fourth in wins, second in save percentage (to Tuuka Rask again. Boy, he's good eh?), seventh in shutouts, and seventh in games played. And yet if you were to name your instinctive Vezina trophy winner, who would you say? Yeah, not Rask. He only played 45 games. You'd say Miller, you know you would. So you have the league's consensus Number One goalie against the league's consensus offensive slug. Both teams have good goalies, though Miller's resume is certainly longer and more impressive, only one team can score, and both are pretty close defensively. Still, Zdeno Chara plays for Boston and, like Pronger, will play ALL the time. That alone should cut down on the offensive disparity, but not enough to change the result. Buffalo in 6.

4. Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa: This and Caps-Habs are the premier playoff series in the East by far. On paper this should be a sweep, with Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar, Staal and Fleury up against Spezza, Alfredsson, Karlsson and, um, Brian Elliot. Elliot's been pretty good of course, better than Leclaire: 2.57 GAA vs. 3.20, .909 save % vs. .887. He's also been a little better than Fleury too, who has a slightly higher GAA, 2.65, and a lower save %, .905. Even if goaltending is a wash in this series, the offensive isn't and since Volchenkov and Phillips can play either Crosby and Malkin and not both, scoring is certainly in Pittsburgh's favor. Still, there's something about Ottawa this year... nah. Pittsburgh in 6.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Rangers vs. Philadelphia

Well, I was pretty close. I'm sure I would've been right if the Rangers hadn't left their entire season up to Olli Jokinen. Right Flames? Isn't he such a valuable asset!?

Friday, April 9, 2010

Why Your Team Didn't Verb the Noun

Why Your Team Didn't Make The Playoffs

In Part 2 of the massively popular series, Why Your Noun Didn't Verb the Noun, we look at the other 14 teams that make up the ever-glorious National League of Hockey. Last time I said rather definitely that the teams that were in the playoffs then were guarenteed to be the final 16. So far so good, except that the New Matt Rangers beat Philly tonight and now sit tied for the eighth spot. I'm fine with being wrong if it means Philly misses the playoffs. Philly sucks. Go Rangers, they managed to trade or sigh some of the ex-Oilers that not everyone in Edmonton despises. A bold declaration then! The first of many! Many unrelated to the title! Rangers WILL make the playoffs, beating Philly in a shootout on Sunday. Book it.

Other predictions before the shenanigans start. I made a bet at work today that Tyler Seguin will play next year in junior. He'll play the first few games of course, but before reaching the 10 game limit he'll be sent back to the OHL by... Edmonton. The Oilers have by far the best chance at winning the draft lottery (this Tuesday, 5 pm ET on TSN), but they only have a 48.2% overall. So at slightly worse than a coin flip, the chances are strong that they'll end drafting second (since that's the lowest they can fall) and that's where they'll take Seguin. Of the other four teams most likely to jump up to first overall, Boston (via Brian Burke's "brain") has the next best shot. They'd draft Hall since they need a winger to replace Kessel (assuming Hall is actually as good as advertised, of course) more than a center who'd play behind Savard and Bergeron. Tampa has the next best shot and they're in even better shape down the middle with Stamkos and Lecavalier. Florida is next and could draft either way but would probably have to trade either Horton or Weiss since Seguin, should he play in the NHL right away (again, we're assuming he's as good as advertised too), would play on one of the top two lines. Besides, Hall's more exciting and they need someone who can make the fans PAY ATTENTION. The Islanders are the next (this is all as of today of course) and could draft either way, but given their inability to score as well a winger like Hall might be more appealing. In other words, of the five primary lottery teams, the Oilers have the biggest void at center and will do one of two things: drop to second in the lottery and draft Seguin or retain the first pick, trade down to second for either some cap relief or another prospect and draft Seguin then.

I'm personally unsure which player the Oilers SHOULD chose, they both seem pretty equal except for their position. It's not like the Oilers have a surplus of snipers who play big on the wings either, but they have even less at center. IF, and the intentional capitalization indicates a Very Big If, both players are exactly as good as each other and have identical careers and wear the same clothes and eat at all the same restaurants, Edmonton should draft on their needs and get Seguin. BUT, and that's a big But, Hall's won the OHL and CHL Rookie of the Year and was Memorial Cup MVP last year, played well in the World Juniors and, apparently, was good enough that if he was draft eligible last year would've been taken over Tavares. Seguin didn't make the World Juniors, has only had one great year in the OHL and STILL had less points-per-game than Hall. BUT he's apparently better defensively than Hall and kills penalties. BUT Hall outplayed Seguin in their recent playoff matchup and his Spitfires easily beat Seguin's Whalers. BUT... Oh God Who Knows. I'm pretty sure Edmonton takes Seguin. Who knows who they should take.

Why Your Team Didn't Make The Playoffs:

Western Conference:

9. Calgary - HAHAHA! HAHAHA! HAHAHAHA! Stop! Please! You're killing me! Matt Stajan for 4 more years at $3.5 million? After FOUR POINTS IN SEVEN GAMES!?!?! It's called a SAMPLE SIZE, y'ever heard of it?!?! You traded away the ONLY DECENT PLAYER you've drafted in 10 years FOR CAP SPACE!?!?! And then spent all that space on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS SECOND LINE CENTER!?!?! Oh GOD! Jokinen's $5 million was coming off the books and you turn it into two more years of $3 million statue ALES FUCKING KOTALIK? No more, please! You have HOW many draft picks in the top 60 in the next two years? Two? Because you basically traded Jordan Leopold and a first round pick for KOTALIK and Chris Higgins? And WHY did you trade Dustin Boyd for a 4th round pick? Did you forget about all the scoring you WEREN'T doing!?!? Was his $650,000 making it hard for him to fit in!?! I have to catch my breath here. Okay. Slow it down. Pulse... lowering... lowering... okay, I'll risk one more look at your NHL Numbers page and wait, is this a typo? Is your cap hit for Steve Staios, Cory Sarich, Matt Stajan and Rene Bourque next year really just under $17 million dollars? ARE YOU SERIOUS?!?! WHAT IN DEEP DARK MOUNTAINS OF HOLY FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU!??!?! How I am supposed to write anything for any other team now? Dear Calgary Flames fans, the reason the Calgary Flames are not in the playoffs is because Darryl Sutter absolutely fucking hates you the way Allied forces fucking hated Dresden. And now they want to trade Iginla. Marvelous.

Also, scoring was an issue.

10. St. Louis - There's other teams? Shit. Um... okay, got one. Keith Tkachuck was impressed with Chris Mason's confidence, poise, and quick reflexes for the 2008-2009 playoff-bound Blues. He took the coach's words of "feeding off their goalie" too literally and devoured Mas... Wait a second. Rene Bourque's contract was for SIX YEARS!?!? WHY!!?!? Is it THAT hard to find a player to average 0.54 points-per-game over his career that you just COULDN'T LET THAT SHIT GET AWAY??? Was it his single point, -2 +/- and 22 penalty minutes in the playoffs last year that made you think he was a KEEPER!?!? It WAS, wasn't it?!?! You're KILLING me Sutter!!! MY TUMMY HURTS NOW!!!

11. Anaheim - Lingering effects of Sutterarian influence in the organization. Team acquired some Leaf cast-offs of their very own in Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake, presumably because team's confidence in their goaltending and scoring ability was holding them back. That resolved, the team's character improved and Coach took them out for ice cream even though they lost the big game.

12. Dallas - I dunno, just seems like they needed a spark, some kind of agitator or something. Don't get me wrong, Steve Ott seems like a super nice guy, but what about someone who could REALLY stir the pot? And not just on the ice either. Forget it, not with Brett Hull running the team. He's not? Oh. Well, maybe there's hope!

13. Minnesota - Team announces big plans to change their style of play from boring and defense-oriented to wide-open and exciting. They unleash their new attack with the acquisitions of Kyle Brodziak, Chuck Kobasew, Robbie Earl and the continued employm...er... "deployment" of Derek Boogaard. Martin Havlat continues his point-a-game pace from the year before in Chicago, but only if you look at Total Net Points where you add up points for, 54, with his net plus/minus, -19. So, in 73 games, Havlat "contributed" 73 points. No? Well, he hasn't kicked anyone yet.

14. Columbus - Big declines in play from Derek Brassard, Steve Mason and Mike Commodore lead fans to wonder why in the world they were entrusting the Columbus Rick Nashes to Derek Brassard, Steve Mason and Mike Commodore. Having something called "Grant Clitsome" playing defense probably didn't keep the guys focused either. No, really. Look him up.

15. Edmonton - Well, losing out on the Jay Bouwmeester Sweepstakes really hurt and wait, What? In the first of five years averaging $6.68 million, Bouwmeester has THREE GOALS?!?! "Where's the offense going to come from Calgary?" "Haha, silly Everyone In the World! We'll get lots of offense from our defense! With Phaneuf AND Bouwmeester, scoring won't be an issue at all!" That's AWESOME!!! Way to go Flames! That quick-transition game got you 28th IN THE NHL IN GOALS FOR AND 26th ON THE POWERPLAY!!! HAHAHAHA!!!

Also, injuries.

Eastern Conference:

9. Philadelphia - Third-string janitor Buck McShineykins lets in two questionable goals in the third period against the Rangers, and fails to stop even one shootout attempt (Pierre McGuire names him the game's Monster anyway). Local fans and media loudly voice their objections to the failure to land a goalie at the trade deadline. GM Paul Holmgren insists that he put in a call to Islanders' GM Garth Snow only to find out that Snow himself is not available.

10. Atlanta - Despite accomplishing the Perfect Trade by acquiring a puck-moving defenseman AND a top-six forward AND a draft pick in the SAME trade, team falls just short of a playoff spot. Team blames the distraction of the Todd White sweepstakes hanging over the heads all year. GM Don Waddell promises that NEXT TIME players will be re-signed or traded before their value completely diminishes. Probably.

11. Carolina - Realizes too late they can't possibly rob Edmonton of two kinds of glory in a five-year span, and decide to try to make the playoffs instead. Recchi is a diver.

12. New York Islanders - Team hopes that John Tavares living with Doug Weight will become the Islander version of Sidney Crosby living with Mario Lemieux, but without enough goaltending depth the team falters. Yet the rebuild is underway with off-season plans to sign Vesa Toskala, Marty Turco, Ray Emery, Josh Harding and, as insurance, Martin Biron. Matt Moulson's 52 year, $176.8 million contract extension is expected to be announced early next week.

13. Florida - David Booth's inspiring return to the lineup, after missing 45 games with a Severely Detached Head (officially called "a mild upper upper body injury"), fails after Jaroslav Spacek reaches in with a welcome back hug. Team can't recover, and Booth now tattoos important information on his arm and remembers not to trust Teddy's lies.

14. Tampa Bay - Despite a wildly successful and unexpected season from Steven Stamkos, the Lightning fail because teams with only one play can be kind of predictable. Also, players claim financial distractions when team owners suggest a new plan to compensate players not in salary but with a "jaunty song-and-dance." Bettman claims record attendance and profits.

15. Toronto - High expectations followed Brian Burke's summer of free-agent signings as Truculence, Pugnacity, Belligerence and Testosterone all agreed to team contracts. Unfortunately, none were acquired because of any hockey-related skill and the team's penalty kill (last), powerplay (last), and defensive-zone play (second last in goals-against) suffered. Some in the media attempted to lay some blame at the feet of Ron Wilson only to find that, when things are laid at Ron Wilson's feet, he assumes they are offerings from mere mortals and his powers grow. When asked about his repeated warnings of greater accountability from players and management, Burke flew into a insane rage, smashed his fist into the table, screamed about Vancouver trading Alex Burrows to Tampa for Hedman, traded away all the team's draft picks forever for a one-season wonder with questionable chuzbah, and called Kevin Lowe a rapist. The Toronto media nod their wise old heads in approval of The Burke's patient re-build, and Michael Lansberg comes out of his coffin and promises to interview Burke every single day. People who accidentally stumble onto Lansberg's "show" see no difference.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Ryan Smyth vs. Trevor Linden

Sort-of-recently, a fellow hockey connoisseur and I were talking about Trevor Linden and how he's probably the greatest Vancouver Canuck of all-time. He's not the best PLAYER to play for Vancouver, you'd have to say either Pavel Bure, Mark Messier, or Roberto Luongo were that. His career does comprise the best numbers and accomplishments of any player wearing a Canucks jersey, and I think it's easy to see that difference. It's also a distinction that probably matters more to fans, since trades and free-agency move players around the league so much that for a fan, the only thing that matters, when evaluating a player, is how well they played for THEIR team. We're also talking about right now; it's certainly possible that Luongo or Henrik Sedin take over and become the player most successful and most identifiable with the Canucks. Today though, it's Linden.

To be fair, the conversation came up when we were making fun of the Canucks, and were making the point that the best player in franchise history wasn't even close to Hall of Fame consideration. It's no knock on Linden of course, I always liked him, and should certainly not affect how Canucks fans' feel about him. I assume that it doesn't matter anyway; rarely do you find fans whose favorite player is or was the best player on their team or in the league. Sure, some people will tell you that Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin is their favorite player. Those people, unless they live in Pittsburgh or Washington, are a) bandwagoners, b) not hockey fans, or c) both, but those are the same thinga anyway. Most fans, at least in my little world, hold the grinders a little closer to heart, perhaps because we can better associate with and can better understand a player who looks like everything takes a world of effort. At his career peak (probably 1993-1997), Linden was among the upper echelon of that kind of physical, hard-working, fan-favorite, team-drafted and developed players that fans are always drawn to. What it says about the Canucks that Linden is the franchise's greatest player isn't something I want to get in here, but more about a comparison that I wonder whether or not is fair. At work this same conversation came up and I suggested that Trevor Linden was to Vancouver what Ryan Smyth was to Edmonton: both drafted in the first round, both became huge parts of their team's identity, both represented Canada internationally and, of course, both lost heartbreaking seventh games in the Stanley Cup Finals. So intuitively, at least to me, they seem like an excellent comparison. But what do the facts say?

Fans are irrational, emotional, and often their intuition of what seems right is totally wrong. The Smyth-Linden comparison seems pretty apt but let's break it down a little further (all numbers from Hockey Reference) to see how close they are:
Regular Season Stats:
Smyth is still playing obviously so this will be incomplete, but he's not likely to play as many seasons as Linden. Linden played 19 NHL seasons, starting at 18 years old, Smyth has played 14 complete seasons and started in what would be his first full season at 19 years old. Linden finished with 1382 games played, 375 goals, 492 assists for 867 points with a -64 plus/minus (0.63 points per game). Smyth finished last season with 920 games played, 310 goals, 350 assists for 660 points and a -27 plus/minus (0.72 points per game). So Smyth is the better point producer, but Linden played more games and in a physical sport that's more to his credit than if this was baseball. Smyth played almost all of his career as a first or second line player; Linden was a third liner for most of his last 5 years. Edge: Smyth, but slightly.
Peak years:
Comparing both players' peak seasons means playing around a little bit. I wanted to look at each player's five best seasons, but on a points-per-game basis as one of Linden's best came during the strike-shortened 1994-1995 season. I'm going to include that but take his numbers over an 82 game season, then reduce both players' stats to a points-per-game number. I think you have to do it that way because while Smyth's peak seasons all occurred in 82 game seasons; Linden had one in a 48 game season (1994-1995), two in 80 game seasons (1990-1991, 1991-1992), and one in an 84 game season (1992-1993). Yeah. What a jerk.
Linden's best five seasons (the four listed above, plus 1995-1996 which was certainly his best overall) totaled 374 games played, 148 goals, 189 assists for 337 points, which works out to 0.90 points per game. Smyth's best five seasons (2000-2001, 2006-2007, 2005-2006, 2002-2003, 2008-2009) totaled 371 games, 156 goals, 168 assists for 324 points, averaging out to 0.87 points per game. Good samples sizes as both players played an almost identical number of games. Smyth had more goals but Linden had many more assists (a product of playing in a more offensive era) so edge, in another close one, goes to Linden.
International Play:
Why count international play? Well, don't you love it when your favorite player plays for Canada (or, um, another country)? I think international experience, by virtue of raising that player's profile nationally and internationally, serves to strengthen a fan's relationship with that player. Plus, international hockey is always a big deal not just in Canada but in any hockey-playing nation, and is considered as part of a player's Hall of Fame credentials. Both players have impressive international resumes, but you might already know where this one's going.
Linden's international experience is all over the map (har!). One World Junior Championship (1987-1988, 7 games, 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point), one World Cup Hockey (1996, 8 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points), one Olympics (1998, 6 games, 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point), and two World Championships (1991, 1998, 16 games, 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points). Scored the tying goal against the Czech Republic in the 1998 Olympic semi-final, also played in the World Championships that year. Kudos to him for putting in extra time in what must have been a very long year.

Smyth's international experience is well-known, carrying the nickname Captain Canada for his willingness to play for Canada year after year in the World Championships. His overall international experience includes one World Junior Championship (1994-1995, 7 games, 2 goals, 5 assists), seven World Championships (60 games, 15 goals, 17 assists, 32 points), one World Cup of Hockey (2005, 6 games, 3 goals, 1 assist), and two Olympic teams (2002, 2006, 12 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points). Edge: Smyth.

Association with city:

I'm not even sure I need to break this down. Linden played 16 seasons with Vancouver, had his number retired, was heavily involved in many B.C. charities such BC Children's Hospital, Canuck Place, and his own Trevor Linden Foundation and was named to the Order of British Columbia. He even ran in the 2010 Olympic torch relay (source). On the ice, he's best known for leading the Canucks on their 1994 Stanley Cup run, his captaincy from 1991-1997, putting Jeff Norton through the glass, and really looking like Bradley Cooper.

Smyth was involved in the Edmonton community, donated time to charity but is certainly most associated with his on-ice play. He was never captain, served as assistant captain and captained Canada's World Championship teams from 2001-2005. Captain captain captain. He created his own version of the Gretzky office in front of the net and for a time was among the league's best at tipping pucks and creating screens. The peak of Edmonton career, much like Linden's, was in his team's 2006 Stanley Cup run. In game 3 against San Jose, Chris Pronger's clearing attempt hit Smyth in the mouth, knocking out several teeth and leaving blood everywhere. Smyth returned and set up Shawn Horcoff's double-overtime goal, paving the way for four straight victories in that series. A fan favorite, he cried when traded and almost cost Kevin Lowe his job (I have to find the source on that, it was a long story by David Staples who writes for the Edmonton Journal and has a great Oiler blog, The Cult of Hockey) and was "famous" for that "hairstyle." Edge: Linden, and it's not really close.

So that means we need some sort of tiebreaker, some sort of artificial measurement to break the deadlock. Suggestions...?