I like watching AJ Burnett, when he's pitching well that is, more than anyone else on the Blue Jays' staff. Out of Halladay, Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch/Purcey/Parrish, Burnett makes hitters look the worst but again, when he's actually pitching well. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with watching Halladay, but it's a different kind of excellence (and a better kind, to be sure, than almost any else's in baseball). Halladay can get six outs on five pitches; since 2001 he's average a ground ball out/fly ball out ratio of 2.27, as a reference point this year's leader is Brandon Webb at a freakish 3.34 and at a distant second, Aaron Cook of Colorado's 2.33. Halladay's ability to avoid high pitch count innings (this year averaging 14.26 pitches per inning, 6th in the majors), move the game along quickly, and pound the strike zone has made him the best candidate to succeed Dave Stieb as the franchise's best pitcher (some would say he's the best now, but I disagree and will prove it another time.)
Halladay's strength is picking corners, cutting fastballs all over the strike zone and forcing bad contact. Burnett's strength is just filthy stuff which he uses to get more strikeouts, which lead to higher pitch counts and shorter outings. Halladay will go through a lineup and make them all feel like they "just missed that one" because they made contact. Burnett, and I say WHEN HE'S ON as loudly as I can type it, makes hitters look like small children swinging shovels at flies. 98 mph fastball, a curveball that starts out as a beanball and ends up in the dirt, and, apparently, a changeup that he learned and never throws because, I guess, that would make him too good. There's nothing as satisfying as watching the vaunted Yankees totally overmatched by Burnett's A game, and this is exactly why J.P. Riccardi should absolutely not trade him. They bought him so they'd have someone to follow up Halladay in those series against the Yankees and Red Sox (and now the Rays too), and every time you watch Jesse Litsch get run out of the game after four innings and 100 pitches against those teams, you're reminded why you need real pitching to win divisions.
Oh yeah, sometimes Burnett sucks. Sometimes he nibbles the corners and walks too many guys, he throws way too many pitches when he's up 0-2 in the count, and even Ben Zobrist can hit homeruns off 98 mph heaters when they're down the middle. Oh, and he gets hurt a lot, making over 30 starts in a season just once. And he's more inconsistant than Brett Favre's retirement plans; in his 20 starts this year (prior to tonight) he's given up five earned runs or more in six starts. And yet he's given up two earned runs or less in nine other starts, so there's been some stellar performances in there as well. This is not a great pitcher, there aren't any stats out there that suggest he's been under-rated or under-appreciated, but this is, as the refrain with AJ always goes, a tremendous talent. He should end up with 15 wins this year, which usually means nothing since wins are such a bad way of measuring a pitcher's performance, but in this case it might actually be indicative of AJ's value. See, when AJ's on, he's lights-out good and when he's bad he's terrible, so when he gets a decision in a game it'll be after giving up something like seven runs over four innings or none over eight. In other words, he EARNS his decisions. The irony, therefore, is that wins, a useless measurement, might say more about him than good stats like WHIP or ERA+, since with Burnett those numbers will be based on extreme performances. His performances are better approximated by flipping a coin than averaging out previous performances.
So keep Burnett because, while he might not ever become the pitcher his talent would indicate, he's exactly what the Jays will need to keep pace in the American League East. I like Jesse Litsch and Shawn Marcum, they're both good control pitchers who've done well with the stuff they have. They just don't have the stuff to mow through a lineup, any lineup, like Burnett and Halladay, and even McGowan some days, are able to. It's true that with Burnett you are indeed flipping a coin to see what kind of performance you'll get, but at least you know that getting heads might get you 8 innings, 10 K's and 2 hits. Lots of pitchers can do that against Seattle or Kansas City, but there aren't many with the stuff to do it against the AL East's big spenders.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Sporticourse Principle
Can we talk? Honestly? Thanks, you’re such a good listener, even though you probably don’t know me very well. I just have to get this out, I’ve had a kind of revelation and I need to explore it. I’ve spent most of my life under the assumption that I was a creative, artistic, big picture person, best suited to a lifestyle full of ideas and expression. This assumption allowed me to shrug off late-high school struggles with math, physics and chemistry and instead embrace the more forgiving, subjective nature of social sciences and humanities. Choosing that path years ago provides now provides me with a built-in excuse for lower professional expectations while still maintaining a sense of arrogant altruism, since money “just doesn’t mean that much to me.” It also lets me tell anonymous lies on the internet.
I have a book that, every time I read it, changes me a little bit. Most of us have a book like that, or a movie, maybe something counter-culture, like Fight Club (either the book or movie), something uplifting and reassuring like the Shawshank Redemption or, speaking of altruism, the Bible. For me it’s the Dilbert Principle. Scott Adams’ 1995 book is my Lord of the Rings, something that needs to be re-read every few years for its central message to remain. I’m reading it right now during my breaks from work and realized that I’ve miscast myself throughout my entire life. Adams, in his chapter on office personalities (the book’s at work so no exact quotes for you), describes engineers as having a singular goal in human interaction: proving their mental superiority over others by explaining complex ideas. That, and finding their true happiness in electronic toys and gadgets. I already knew that I valued electronics way too much, my home theatre system is worth more than my car or university degree (in dollars, the arrogance you get with a political science degree is priceless), but reading the description of engineers and their social goals seemed surprisingly familiar.
But this is a sports blog, you say! There’s no room for self-centered epistemological meditations! Just tell us whether or not Souray’s contract will cripple the Oilers in the last few years so we can call you a Nazi in the comments section! Well, this DOES relate to sports because I’m realizing that it’s only in this area where my engineering tendencies take over. I started this blog because I hoped that, after a few years of practice, I’d be able to write something as insightful and educational as Joe Posnanski, something as funny as the guys at FireJoeMorgan, or contribute something as unique as Loxy's Hot Oil or MBK (it pays off to comment). In other words, I knew where the ceiling was, knew how far I had to go to analyze sports as well as the best. I was humble, I knew that people are out there who know more, a LOT more, about sports than I do. My problem is that I can’t recognize them when I see them.
Baseball is a great sport to talk about because statistics are so well measure and maintained. The complexity is measuring player value is staggering at first, but if you take a little time to understand what VORP, WHIP and OPS+ are all about you’ll be pleasantly surprised to find that a lot of people who talk about baseball are idiots. Now you’re smarter than they are, and happier as a result. But hockey’s harder, you can’t quantify performance the same way because the sport doesn’t break down into short, measurable increments. Now, you’ll find yourself listening to the same stupid arguments about “leadership” and “great teammate” and “clutch performer” in any sport. In baseball though, you can refute this nonsense pretty easily but in hockey you have to grit your teeth knowing your counter-argument won’t be much better. But this is summertime, which means baseball, which means baseball on the TVs every night at work (home theatre sales, for disclosure’s sake), which means LOTS of arguments over player performance. Now I’m in sales, I have to be nice to people, listen to what they have to say, make them feel welcome but I will be DAMNED if I’m going to let them say that Alex Rodriguez sucks in the post-season (39 games, .279/.361/.483, 7 home runs, 17 RBI’s). That’s the engineering side right there, no matter what the social situation the primal need is there to say NO YOU’RE WRONG HERE’S IMPENETRABLE LOGIC SHOWING YOU WHY. I DON’T CARE IF WE’RE NOT FRIENDS ANYMORE I DON’T EVEN KNOW YOU. I’M NOW ADDING VOLUME TO MY EXCELLENT ARGUMENT. I WIN. Totally disregarding the nuances and subtleties of the social context, my only goal is to explain in great detail how WHIP and ERA+ show how Pedro Martinez was more dominant in 2000 than Bob Gibson was in his famous 1968 Cy Young/MVP season.
Of course, the temptation is just to sit back, rationalize oneself, and assume that all sports fans are like this, none of them just “let it go,” never pass up a chance to one-up someone else with greater knowledge or “better” stories, even if that person is in the middle of interviewing you for a job. Yeah, that’s probably true, fans are by nature deranged and dangerously volatile, they can’t be held responsible for their suddenly crippled social skills when someone says Bernie Williams should be in the Hall of Fame (correct answer: No). It’s not just me, we’re all arrogant and belligerent. Right! Right? Right.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
What is an athlete's legacy at the end of their career? As a fan, do you watch your favorite player's retirement ceremony and think, damn, what a great hitter that sonofabitch was, he had the broadest shoulders, squarest jaw and dirtiest uniform I did ever saw? Do you think about his character, his willingness to block shots, hold the line, and take a hometown discount? Do you associate him, or her, with their greatest victory, their first memorable appearance or their fall from grace?
I ask these questions of you, the reader, because it's pretty clear that to athletes it doesn't matter what you think. It's not to say they ignore you with any degree of disrespect, but that clearly an athlete has a different mindset entirely from what their legacy should entail. That paradigm doesn't fit into the heroic or legendary or larger-than-life motif that fans place athletes into, but rather one that's perhaps more akin to you with your career. For athletes, the sport they play is a job, a preposterous one that could only exist within our weird little world, but still a job where you have to show up every day, work overtime, miss your family, and get yelled at by your boss.
The idea that I have any kind of insight into the mind of a pro athlete is absurd; the closest resemblance I have to a friendship with a pro athlete was serving Dan Hamhuis sweet and sour pork once. Hey, it was a small town. I defy you though to argue with the assessment that an athlete's understanding of their place in history (well, sports history anyway, which exists in a parallel universe) is pretty damn different than how the rest of us would like to place them. Especially in light of Brett Favre's public displays of indecision that would make a social sciences grad shake their head. This is, of course, the catalyst for this little ramble, but it really illustrates the point that athletes live in their own little world.
And not a bad world to live in, if you can. Oh, in case you were wondering, this IS a blog and not an essay, and if I want to start a new paragraph with "And," or ":-)" or the Batman symbol then BOOYA for me. Favre finished the 2006 season on a down note, his completion percentage and his touchdown/pass ratio was the worst of his career, and his quarterback rating was 72.7 (25th in the league, all stats here). So when he hummed aloud about whether he was coming back, people seemed quite reasonably bummed out that he'd be leaving after a bad season. Not a great way to remember a sure thing Hall of Fame player. But Favre did come back, and 2007 was a tremendous year for him and the overachieving Packers. His QB rating was 6th in the league at 95.7, 4th in passing yards, 6th in yards/game, posted the BEST completion percentage of his career and nearly doubled his TD/pass rating (more stats here). His name was tossed around as an MVP candidate as he took one of the youngest teams in the NFL and brought them within one OhGodPunchMeInTheFace interception (his own, obviously) of going to the Super Bowl. Heady days for the Cheeseheads as the great Favre had proven he wasn't finished, was still great, and left the loyal Wisconsinites in a perfect position regarding his future and their memory of him: if he retired, he did so near the top of his game, if he came back he was doing so in a position to lead his team, not drag it down just for one last painful hurrah.
Then he did retire, and people were surprised but seemed pleased and impressed. It's hard to leave something you love, and Favre was doing it not far from his peak years. Aaron Rogers could now take over, once three years' worth of clipboard splinters heal. Favre would fade into memory and legend, wearing a cowboy hat or a cheesehead, a big belt buckle and flannel shirt while driving a combine or something. Anyone from Wisconsin? Is that right, or offensive?
Favre is now back, wants to either play for the Packers (which means Start, not Backup like that chump Rogers, who's only been prepping all summer to be the starting QB for one of the most notable sports franchises in North America) or be released to play elsewhere. Some in the media do not seem to agree with Favre's decision, and that's kind of the point. NOBODY wants Favre to come back now, and certainly not this way, forcing the team and management into shuffling around the deck chairs to accompany the way-too-late requests of Combine Belt Buckle Man. So Favre said, presumably in the same voice as the captured alien in Independence Day, "release me," and the Packers said No. This "legacy" stuff is pretty hard for Favre to grasp obviously, not quite realizing that when you move on to other things, other things won't be there when you come back. Who can say if a player should be able to unretire and play until they absolutely suck, like Rickey Henderson or Tom Poti, if they really want to? Fans and media can't, and wouldn't be listened to anyways. It's a different world they play in. It's their job, not ours.
I ask these questions of you, the reader, because it's pretty clear that to athletes it doesn't matter what you think. It's not to say they ignore you with any degree of disrespect, but that clearly an athlete has a different mindset entirely from what their legacy should entail. That paradigm doesn't fit into the heroic or legendary or larger-than-life motif that fans place athletes into, but rather one that's perhaps more akin to you with your career. For athletes, the sport they play is a job, a preposterous one that could only exist within our weird little world, but still a job where you have to show up every day, work overtime, miss your family, and get yelled at by your boss.
The idea that I have any kind of insight into the mind of a pro athlete is absurd; the closest resemblance I have to a friendship with a pro athlete was serving Dan Hamhuis sweet and sour pork once. Hey, it was a small town. I defy you though to argue with the assessment that an athlete's understanding of their place in history (well, sports history anyway, which exists in a parallel universe) is pretty damn different than how the rest of us would like to place them. Especially in light of Brett Favre's public displays of indecision that would make a social sciences grad shake their head. This is, of course, the catalyst for this little ramble, but it really illustrates the point that athletes live in their own little world.
And not a bad world to live in, if you can. Oh, in case you were wondering, this IS a blog and not an essay, and if I want to start a new paragraph with "And," or ":-)" or the Batman symbol then BOOYA for me. Favre finished the 2006 season on a down note, his completion percentage and his touchdown/pass ratio was the worst of his career, and his quarterback rating was 72.7 (25th in the league, all stats here). So when he hummed aloud about whether he was coming back, people seemed quite reasonably bummed out that he'd be leaving after a bad season. Not a great way to remember a sure thing Hall of Fame player. But Favre did come back, and 2007 was a tremendous year for him and the overachieving Packers. His QB rating was 6th in the league at 95.7, 4th in passing yards, 6th in yards/game, posted the BEST completion percentage of his career and nearly doubled his TD/pass rating (more stats here). His name was tossed around as an MVP candidate as he took one of the youngest teams in the NFL and brought them within one OhGodPunchMeInTheFace interception (his own, obviously) of going to the Super Bowl. Heady days for the Cheeseheads as the great Favre had proven he wasn't finished, was still great, and left the loyal Wisconsinites in a perfect position regarding his future and their memory of him: if he retired, he did so near the top of his game, if he came back he was doing so in a position to lead his team, not drag it down just for one last painful hurrah.
Then he did retire, and people were surprised but seemed pleased and impressed. It's hard to leave something you love, and Favre was doing it not far from his peak years. Aaron Rogers could now take over, once three years' worth of clipboard splinters heal. Favre would fade into memory and legend, wearing a cowboy hat or a cheesehead, a big belt buckle and flannel shirt while driving a combine or something. Anyone from Wisconsin? Is that right, or offensive?
Favre is now back, wants to either play for the Packers (which means Start, not Backup like that chump Rogers, who's only been prepping all summer to be the starting QB for one of the most notable sports franchises in North America) or be released to play elsewhere. Some in the media do not seem to agree with Favre's decision, and that's kind of the point. NOBODY wants Favre to come back now, and certainly not this way, forcing the team and management into shuffling around the deck chairs to accompany the way-too-late requests of Combine Belt Buckle Man. So Favre said, presumably in the same voice as the captured alien in Independence Day, "release me," and the Packers said No. This "legacy" stuff is pretty hard for Favre to grasp obviously, not quite realizing that when you move on to other things, other things won't be there when you come back. Who can say if a player should be able to unretire and play until they absolutely suck, like Rickey Henderson or Tom Poti, if they really want to? Fans and media can't, and wouldn't be listened to anyways. It's a different world they play in. It's their job, not ours.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Kevin Lowe kills the whole town
I am SO tired of talking about hockey. Not because I don't get excited about the draft and free agency, because I REALLY do, but because it's 30 damn degrees outside and I don't want to find myself looking forward to winter for any reason. Until the Blue Jays start resembling a team that's in any way enjoyable to watch, the pennant races heat up and the CFL season builds some more momentum (Esks-Stamps last weekend!? Huh!? HUH!!! Aw yeeeeeah!), it's more stuff about hockey to talk about!
Brian Burke got very upset when he felt that his rhubarb had been rubbed by another man. Meaning, of course, that he didn't appreciate another GM poaching his property, since hockey players, as you well know, were brought over from Africa on the Middle Passage. Now, that Burke has said some pretty mean things about Kevin Lowe, and has taken his time getting all of his hurt feelings out as it's been a little less than a year since Pennergate and he still won't shut the hell up about it. Some of those things were personally and professional insulting (last line) to Lowe, some were high-handed and self-serving, while others were simply stupid and contradictory. Lowe sat piously at his desk, polishing his Stanley Cup rings that he earned on the ice rather than in a Lazy-Boy, and said little in the hopes that Burke would turn his bile at the Toronto media, or GM's overpaying players, or a small puppy.
Until yesterday. Scorched Earth policy indeed. I'd rather he hadn't ripped Duck fans, if only because now all Burke has to do is say something high-handed and self-serving like "If Kevin Lowe wants to criticize me that's fine, I'm a big boy, I can take it. What I won't stand for is having our terrific fans and wonderful city ripped by a jealous, petty individual who is tired of never getting a tan." That, of course, implies that compared to Burke, hockey fans in Anaheim can't take criticism and are small, weak individuals. Still, that's the angle Burke will probably play, and hopefully Lowe doesn't apologize or anything. *Shudder*
Brian Burke got very upset when he felt that his rhubarb had been rubbed by another man. Meaning, of course, that he didn't appreciate another GM poaching his property, since hockey players, as you well know, were brought over from Africa on the Middle Passage. Now, that Burke has said some pretty mean things about Kevin Lowe, and has taken his time getting all of his hurt feelings out as it's been a little less than a year since Pennergate and he still won't shut the hell up about it. Some of those things were personally and professional insulting (last line) to Lowe, some were high-handed and self-serving, while others were simply stupid and contradictory. Lowe sat piously at his desk, polishing his Stanley Cup rings that he earned on the ice rather than in a Lazy-Boy, and said little in the hopes that Burke would turn his bile at the Toronto media, or GM's overpaying players, or a small puppy.
Until yesterday. Scorched Earth policy indeed. I'd rather he hadn't ripped Duck fans, if only because now all Burke has to do is say something high-handed and self-serving like "If Kevin Lowe wants to criticize me that's fine, I'm a big boy, I can take it. What I won't stand for is having our terrific fans and wonderful city ripped by a jealous, petty individual who is tired of never getting a tan." That, of course, implies that compared to Burke, hockey fans in Anaheim can't take criticism and are small, weak individuals. Still, that's the angle Burke will probably play, and hopefully Lowe doesn't apologize or anything. *Shudder*
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Good God
When I worked at a gym, selling memberships and making people feel bad about themselves, I got a glimpse into the mechanics of where these amazing stories about ordinary people going through unbelievable problems with their monthly gym payments came. What I saw was an industry of independently-owned businesses which were managed by guys who worked out in squalor their whole lives and wanted to Move On Up. They were like, Damn, that guy raised prices AGAIN, I'm not paying $11.50 a month for this place, let's go off and Make Our Own Gym. So you have gym guys now acting in a management capacity when instead you should have, say, ANYBODY ELSE. Like an accountant, or someone with sales management experience, or someone with a background in marketing, or a corporate finance grad, or... this is fun isn't it? There's a long list of choices, as long as the amount of time you want to toss out random qualifications ("Welder!" "Cable repair man!" "Drifter!") that would be better than a holier-than-thou fitness maniac with -8% body fat who can't understand why you have to cancel your membership with this new job, couldn't you just work 14 hours THEN come in five days a week? You've got a cousin or something, right? Can't they water your six kids for you? Broken leg? You've got TWO, suck it up! No? Well just die then.
The same inmates running the asylum motif exists in the NHL, and was never more evident than July 1st, 2008. Ex-players in management, in their own minds still blocking shots and picking fights to defend their honor, leap at the chance to do whatever's necessary to better their brethren. This CBA was supposed to hinder this behavior. In a cap system, a player isn't really paid a salary, they're paid a percentage of the cap space. Players have a portion of their salary held in escrow so that, at the end of the season, if league earnings have decreased the players take home the designated percentage less than their salary indicates. It's that "cost certainty" we heard so much about during the lockout, a way to make absolutely positively sure that general managers could managed to keep salaries under control this time and not pay more than what league revenues could sustain. Well, those GM's showed us! They were insulted by the league and players' attempts to hamstring their efforts to reduce the league to six teams, owned by the six richest kings of Europe, and steely-eyed and eagle-determined, they set their minds to finding new and hilarious ways of making the sane among us smash our faces into our keyboards each time we re-load TSN.ca on July 1st. At the rate ticket prices keep going up you'll only have six people attending games, arguing about what to do about this maddening Prussian quagmire.
Cristobal Huet is a nice person who recycles his bottles, watches friends' houses when they're out of town, and is rarely found punting puppies into nearby ravines. I wish him nothing but the best. Cristobal Huet now has a greater annual salary than Martin Brodeur, having signed yesterday for four years, $5.6 million per year with Chicago (all signings, with commentary, can be found here). This is fucking ridiculous. He'll be 33 when the season starts, and while coming a season where he did win 33 games for Montreal and Washington, before that never won more than 19. He's never played more than 52 games in a season, which indicates than while he doesn't have the miles that other 33 year old goalies might have, he was likely NOT GOOD ENOUGH to warrant more icetime than that. At least Nikolai Khabibulin was coming off a Stanley Cup.
Wade Redden is 31 years old, coming off a season of 38 points, +11, and averaged 22:13 of ice time per game. An above average defenseman for his career though showed signs of slowing down last season. The Senators tried to move him at this year's trade deadline and last year's draft, say the rumors, but he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause. He rejected an offer from the Sens prior to July 1st of, I believe to be, two years, $9 million if I remember correctly. So good player, wearing out, thanks for the great years on the Ottawa blueline, see if Detroit will sign you and give you one last shot at a Stanley Cup. Except that the New York Rangers woke up and thought, this is terrible. We've become only the 3rd most embarrassingly run team in New York City! How did that happen? Maybe we can't top the Mets firing Willie Randolph at 3 am while he was on the West Coast, or Isiah Thomas burning the Knicks into the ground with awful signings and sexual harassment suits, but by God, people will NOTICE US NOW! Six years, $6.5 million per season later, the Rangers have themselves Wade Redden until he's 38 which, according to the Sens management fans and media, has been his age for a few years now. This is maybe the worst free agent signing I can remember. This isn't a case of gambling on a player and having him not pan out, this is the Rangers paying for somebody that EVERYBODY knows is running out of time and will be, at best, a 30 point player with injury problems for the next six years. At least Sheldon Souray can hurt people with his shot.
The Leafs are in full rebuild mode and are paying a lot of money to do it. Darcy Tucker was bought out, Brian McCabe is being forced out of town, re-signing Sundin seems like an afterthought, and they recently waived Kyle Wellwood and Andrew Raycroft. This team is going after Tavares and damn anybody who gets in their way, like say, their own good players. The first step in a rebuilding mode is, of course, to sign bad players to replace the bad players you just got rid of. Oh, and pay them a little more will ya? Jeff Finger signed a four year deal worth $3.5 million and Niklas Hagman to a four year, $4 million deal. Ha ha! That's not 3.5 and 4 total you big silly, that's PER YEAR. Finger is 28, just finished his second season in the NHL, had 19 points in 72 games, and was so impressive for the Avs in the playoffs that they sat him for five of their ten games. Hagman had 41 points last year and 29 the year before that (both in 82 games) which is nice, except that Darcy Tucker had 34 in 74 games last year and 43 in 56 the year before that and was making $3.5 million per season. Won't the Leafs be so much better this year with Finger and Hagman than McCabe and Tucker.
There were some very good signings yesterday, like Colorado getting Tucker for two years, $2.5 million each, Chicago overpaying but at least getting the best defenseman in Brian Campbell, and Brian Rolston going back to the Devils for maybe a year too long (four years, $20 million) but at a fair market value. No I'm not going to pull numbers to justify that, but I did see him score lots of goals against the Oilers and all with slapshots, even on tip-ins and wrap-arounds. I just saw that Hossa went to Detroit for $7.4 million on a one year deal, which is great for Detroit. A really odd choice for Hossa though because, in a sport where you're one shift away from ending your career, you'd think it wise to take the long-term, big money deal on the table. The rumor was that Edmonton was the highest bidder on Hossa, offering $63 million over seven years. That's WAY too much, kind of glad they didn't get him, but if you're Hossa why wouldn't you take that? I know winning a Stanley Cup is important, but you'd think at some point in the next seven years Edmonton will be a contender, maybe even this year (!?). Man. Detroit. So smart/lucky.
Quick comment on the two other trades the Oilers made yesterday. After getting Visnovsky and making me share my sad feelings late at night while drinking scotch, Lowe traded Raffi Torres for Gilbert Brule and Joni Pitkanen for Eric Cole. Both are great deals, principally because now I won't have to misspell Pitkanen "PitkOnen," anymore, which I realized I've been doing this entire blog. Torres was a salary dump and was probably being dangled at the draft for a mid-round pick. Getting Brule instead is excellent, a former 6th overall pick and Vancouver Giants star, he's struggled in Columbus (139 games, only 10 goals and 18 assists while -25) but is still very young (21) so there's still time for him to revitalize. He's a lottery ticket in other words, and the payout could be huge. Oh, and he's from Edmonton.
Erik Cole has one year left before unrestricted free agency, which was likely the same amount of time they'd have had with Pittckonyn if they'd re-signed him, since it sounded like they were far apart and thus any deal would be only for one year. They finally get another scorer, one they've wanted for a while apparently, and have another option on the second powerplay unit. Guess he'll also replace Curtis Glencross too, who played well for 20 games or so but wanted too much money for the Oilers. Remember Scott Fraser? Of course you don't. Even if Glencross continues to develope, hopefully not for the Flames as rumors suggest, he still wouldn't have been as good for the Oilers this year as Erik Cole will be. So great trades on paper, this team looks pretty complete until game eight of the season when Souray hurts his shoulder, Moreau breaks both his arms, Garon gets lupus and Roloson goes back to letting in one bad goal every four periods, and Gagner and Cogliano get sent to the minors. Hey if we prepare for it, it won't happen right?
TSN now says that Carolina re-signed Pehttquonnin for three years, $12 million, under July 2nd transactions. Couldn't we have afforded that?
The same inmates running the asylum motif exists in the NHL, and was never more evident than July 1st, 2008. Ex-players in management, in their own minds still blocking shots and picking fights to defend their honor, leap at the chance to do whatever's necessary to better their brethren. This CBA was supposed to hinder this behavior. In a cap system, a player isn't really paid a salary, they're paid a percentage of the cap space. Players have a portion of their salary held in escrow so that, at the end of the season, if league earnings have decreased the players take home the designated percentage less than their salary indicates. It's that "cost certainty" we heard so much about during the lockout, a way to make absolutely positively sure that general managers could managed to keep salaries under control this time and not pay more than what league revenues could sustain. Well, those GM's showed us! They were insulted by the league and players' attempts to hamstring their efforts to reduce the league to six teams, owned by the six richest kings of Europe, and steely-eyed and eagle-determined, they set their minds to finding new and hilarious ways of making the sane among us smash our faces into our keyboards each time we re-load TSN.ca on July 1st. At the rate ticket prices keep going up you'll only have six people attending games, arguing about what to do about this maddening Prussian quagmire.
Cristobal Huet is a nice person who recycles his bottles, watches friends' houses when they're out of town, and is rarely found punting puppies into nearby ravines. I wish him nothing but the best. Cristobal Huet now has a greater annual salary than Martin Brodeur, having signed yesterday for four years, $5.6 million per year with Chicago (all signings, with commentary, can be found here). This is fucking ridiculous. He'll be 33 when the season starts, and while coming a season where he did win 33 games for Montreal and Washington, before that never won more than 19. He's never played more than 52 games in a season, which indicates than while he doesn't have the miles that other 33 year old goalies might have, he was likely NOT GOOD ENOUGH to warrant more icetime than that. At least Nikolai Khabibulin was coming off a Stanley Cup.
Wade Redden is 31 years old, coming off a season of 38 points, +11, and averaged 22:13 of ice time per game. An above average defenseman for his career though showed signs of slowing down last season. The Senators tried to move him at this year's trade deadline and last year's draft, say the rumors, but he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause. He rejected an offer from the Sens prior to July 1st of, I believe to be, two years, $9 million if I remember correctly. So good player, wearing out, thanks for the great years on the Ottawa blueline, see if Detroit will sign you and give you one last shot at a Stanley Cup. Except that the New York Rangers woke up and thought, this is terrible. We've become only the 3rd most embarrassingly run team in New York City! How did that happen? Maybe we can't top the Mets firing Willie Randolph at 3 am while he was on the West Coast, or Isiah Thomas burning the Knicks into the ground with awful signings and sexual harassment suits, but by God, people will NOTICE US NOW! Six years, $6.5 million per season later, the Rangers have themselves Wade Redden until he's 38 which, according to the Sens management fans and media, has been his age for a few years now. This is maybe the worst free agent signing I can remember. This isn't a case of gambling on a player and having him not pan out, this is the Rangers paying for somebody that EVERYBODY knows is running out of time and will be, at best, a 30 point player with injury problems for the next six years. At least Sheldon Souray can hurt people with his shot.
The Leafs are in full rebuild mode and are paying a lot of money to do it. Darcy Tucker was bought out, Brian McCabe is being forced out of town, re-signing Sundin seems like an afterthought, and they recently waived Kyle Wellwood and Andrew Raycroft. This team is going after Tavares and damn anybody who gets in their way, like say, their own good players. The first step in a rebuilding mode is, of course, to sign bad players to replace the bad players you just got rid of. Oh, and pay them a little more will ya? Jeff Finger signed a four year deal worth $3.5 million and Niklas Hagman to a four year, $4 million deal. Ha ha! That's not 3.5 and 4 total you big silly, that's PER YEAR. Finger is 28, just finished his second season in the NHL, had 19 points in 72 games, and was so impressive for the Avs in the playoffs that they sat him for five of their ten games. Hagman had 41 points last year and 29 the year before that (both in 82 games) which is nice, except that Darcy Tucker had 34 in 74 games last year and 43 in 56 the year before that and was making $3.5 million per season. Won't the Leafs be so much better this year with Finger and Hagman than McCabe and Tucker.
There were some very good signings yesterday, like Colorado getting Tucker for two years, $2.5 million each, Chicago overpaying but at least getting the best defenseman in Brian Campbell, and Brian Rolston going back to the Devils for maybe a year too long (four years, $20 million) but at a fair market value. No I'm not going to pull numbers to justify that, but I did see him score lots of goals against the Oilers and all with slapshots, even on tip-ins and wrap-arounds. I just saw that Hossa went to Detroit for $7.4 million on a one year deal, which is great for Detroit. A really odd choice for Hossa though because, in a sport where you're one shift away from ending your career, you'd think it wise to take the long-term, big money deal on the table. The rumor was that Edmonton was the highest bidder on Hossa, offering $63 million over seven years. That's WAY too much, kind of glad they didn't get him, but if you're Hossa why wouldn't you take that? I know winning a Stanley Cup is important, but you'd think at some point in the next seven years Edmonton will be a contender, maybe even this year (!?). Man. Detroit. So smart/lucky.
Quick comment on the two other trades the Oilers made yesterday. After getting Visnovsky and making me share my sad feelings late at night while drinking scotch, Lowe traded Raffi Torres for Gilbert Brule and Joni Pitkanen for Eric Cole. Both are great deals, principally because now I won't have to misspell Pitkanen "PitkOnen," anymore, which I realized I've been doing this entire blog. Torres was a salary dump and was probably being dangled at the draft for a mid-round pick. Getting Brule instead is excellent, a former 6th overall pick and Vancouver Giants star, he's struggled in Columbus (139 games, only 10 goals and 18 assists while -25) but is still very young (21) so there's still time for him to revitalize. He's a lottery ticket in other words, and the payout could be huge. Oh, and he's from Edmonton.
Erik Cole has one year left before unrestricted free agency, which was likely the same amount of time they'd have had with Pittckonyn if they'd re-signed him, since it sounded like they were far apart and thus any deal would be only for one year. They finally get another scorer, one they've wanted for a while apparently, and have another option on the second powerplay unit. Guess he'll also replace Curtis Glencross too, who played well for 20 games or so but wanted too much money for the Oilers. Remember Scott Fraser? Of course you don't. Even if Glencross continues to develope, hopefully not for the Flames as rumors suggest, he still wouldn't have been as good for the Oilers this year as Erik Cole will be. So great trades on paper, this team looks pretty complete until game eight of the season when Souray hurts his shoulder, Moreau breaks both his arms, Garon gets lupus and Roloson goes back to letting in one bad goal every four periods, and Gagner and Cogliano get sent to the minors. Hey if we prepare for it, it won't happen right?
TSN now says that Carolina re-signed Pehttquonnin for three years, $12 million, under July 2nd transactions. Couldn't we have afforded that?
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