Cy Young

The important thing to remember about keeping a blog is to post something on a fairly regular basis. Not too regular though, then people won't check in all the time. Psych studies show that conditioned responses are strongest when the subject is rewarded in random intervals, and while they might take a little longer to develop, those associations will last a lot longer than if the subject were rewarded each time. For example, if you checked my blog every two days and there was always a new entry, your behavioral pattern would change pretty quickly. You'd immediately see the benefit in visiting the site and would do so on a regular basis. However, if I stopped posting anything and you kept visiting, you'd stop visiting pretty quickly since you'd realize there was no reward. With rewards coming on a regular basis the subject learns quickly but then drops off just as quickly. Yet if you visited every two days and I was posting on a random basis, where sometimes you'd find nothing and other times find two or three new postings, you might take a little longer to develop a long-term habit but would also take longer to stop visiting entirely if no new postings were coming.

Of course, this all means little when I haven't written anything at all, regularly or randomly, in almost two weeks. But things have been busy, so whatever.

More picking on Jays announcers, but this time because they're right and I hate them for it. Let me explain. AJ Burnett won tonight against Detroit, going six innings, giving up four earned runs, eight hits while striking out six and walking one. On August 9th Roy Halladay pitched six and a third innings, gave up one earned run, ten hits while striking out six and walking two. Halladay had the better start of course, a few more hits but three less earned runs, and took a loss while Burnett was credited with a win tonight. In Halladay's start, the Jays made two errors in one inning, stretched out Halladay and making him throw way more pitches than necessary as Cleveland came back and won. Tonight, Burnett and the Jays were down 4-1 in the top of the seventh when Toronto scored four times, added another in the ninth, and got excellent bullpen work to seal the victory. So, who "earned" the decision more? Halladay was let down by bad defense and zero run support (only six hits and zero walks against Paul Byrd, who has a 4.53 ERA this year and a batting average against of .282). Burnett finished six innings, gave up three homeruns (solos, luckily) and left with his team down three. Only because he was the last pitcher in the game for Toronto was he given credit for the win, since the Jays scored four in the very next half-inning to go ahead in the game. Had they scored those runs in the eight inning, rather than the seventh, Brandon League would have received credit for the win and Burnett would get a no-decision. In other words, only by virtue of the offense's timing did Burnett receive a win decision.

Back to Jamie and Pat. I can't remember if it was tonight or last night, but they mentioned how the Jays' lack of offense was costing Roy Halladay wins and as a result could cost him the Cy Young this year. This is so frustrating because it reflects the mindset of so many baseball people, journalists and otherwise. Wins are a terrible way to judge a pitcher's value, as I tried to illustrate in the examples above. If Roy Halladay throws nine shutout innings but Rios drops a ball in the ninth to allow a run to score, and the Jays don't score any runs at all, Halladay gets a loss. If Mike Mussina gives up eight runs in five innings but the Yankees score fifteen, he gets the win. Which performance is better? Pretty obvious. So the fact that Halladay could lose out on Cy Young consideration because of factors beyond his control, such as errors and run support, would be tragically ignorant on the part of the voters.

So, how close is he now? Right now the conversation for best pitcher in the American League comes down to Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Mike Mussina. For a control comparison we'll throw in AJ Burnett's numbers, because he happens to be tied for second in the AL in wins. Here's the breakdown, with AL rankings in parentheses:

ERA: Halladay-2.72 (3rd), Lee-2.45 (1st), Mussina-3.27 (10th), Burnett-4.62 (26th). So a pitcher with a 4.62 ERA can be second in the AL in wins, eh?

Walks and Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP): Halladay-1.05 (2nd), Lee-1.08 (3rd), Mussina-1.20 (13th), Burnett-1.44 (31st). Halladay's second in the AL to Justin Duscherer's 0.99, which is ridiculous. Anything around 1.20 is considered "good," so Halladay and Lee are firmly in "excellent" category while Mussina is just "good." Burnett is what we call "BAD." Shawn Marcum, for interest's sake, is actually fourth.

Innings Pitched: Halladay-182.0 (1st), Lee-161.2 (3rd), Mussina-140.1 (32nd), Burnett-157.2 (7th). Some big seperation here, as Halladay has two more starts than Lee and one more than Mussina, but has put up the equivalent of two complete games and change over Lee and nearly five complete games more than Mussina. Suddenly the incremental differences between Halladay and Lee's ERA and WHIP are more substantial, since Halladay's put up very similar numbers in a greater sample size. Halladay also has seven complete games while the next highest, James Shields and Kevin Slowey, are tied with three. The ability to not just be very very good, but also very very durable, is a pretty important factor. It's the difference between Greg Maddux and Jose Lima. You'd take either at their ABSOLUTE BEST, but which one plays for your dream team?

Strikeouts: Halladay-155 (2nd), Lee-128 (8th), Mussina-96 (24th), Burnett-165 (1st). Neither Halladay or Lee are big strikeout pitchers, both use location and try for bad contact, but strikeouts are an easy way to determine how successful a pitcher is on his own, without relying on defense. Mussina's getting left behind...

On-base percentage against: Halladay-.278, Lee-.274, Mussina-.306, Burnett-.339. I didn't include league rankings because Foxsports includes relievers, which are a whole different deal because the sample sizes will be far smaller. Halladay and Lee are basically the same while Mussina is a jump up and Burnett another jump up from that. .339 would be a bad on-base percentage for a batter, but you'd still expect a pitcher with 15 wins to be lower, wouldn't you? No you would NOT, because wins don't matter!

I wrote a long post about AJ a short while ago so it should be clear that I like him, but it should now also be clear that he's a substantial ways behind Roy Halladay. It's only August so there's a long ways left in the season for the Cy Young to be determined of course, but listening to the Jays commentary prompted me to retort and defend Halladay's performance this year. As Burnett piles up the wins and strikeouts he'll start getting mentioned in the Cy Young race as well, great for him, but as you can see right now it's not even close. Halladay and Lee are the class of the AL, Mussina is having a very good year in his old age, and even Justin Duchscherer would be in the discussion if he had more innings because his numbers are awesome. You'd have to give the current edge to Halladay, who has far more innings and strikeouts at this point. So even when you see Halladay stomp off the mound after his team screws him out of a win, know that his team hasn't screwed him out of being the best pitcher in the AL, at least at this point.