Friday, December 7, 2007

Small Sample Sizes And Big Conclusions

So yes, I was wrong about Malkin being the best player on the ice against Edmonton, Sid was the best player in the third obviously and that was the game. Such a flashback to those Oilers teams who would always lose to Dallas in the first round, good enough to compete and make it close but just not the talent. Back then they'd make one mistake and would be doomed no matter the score and as soon as Gilbert gave the puck away in their zone, with Pittsburgh on a line change and with full puck control, you could just feel the game change completely. This was opposed to the previous three games where I thought they looked exactly like the 2006 team who defensively would bend all year but never break. They'd give the puck away in their zone but recover good posture, they contained top players to the perimeter, and while giving up lots of shots most were of the low-percentage variety.

(Stat: It's true that in 2006 the Oilers did allow the fewest shots per game in the league, but then in the playoffs they allowed the highest. Reason: they played Detroit in the first round, the Wings always outshoot teams, and the Oilers trapped and held everyone to the perimeter. After that, they realized they could allow as many shots as they felt like and still win. They also rarely allowed multiple chances because Pronger cleared the front of the net like Saskatchewan farmers clear wheat. And Pronger played ALL the time. That 2006 team was marvelously coached in the playoffs, for all you people who want MacTavish fired).

Four games is probably not a suitable sample size to fully evaluate this team but the styles seem similar. The conclusion, therefore, is that this year's team is somewhere between a team that went to the finals and defied amazing odds in each round and a non-playoff team who can't score 5 on 5 or on the powerplay, doesn't hit and won't fight. This was a useful exercise wasn't it?

No comments: