Saturday, April 5, 2008

Draft comparison

This is going to be an epic post so read it at your own risk/in sections. With the draft lottery results announced Monday, there's the usual talk about team's futures, what teams are bare in the prospect pantry, what teams build their organization "the right way," and all that second-guessing that goes with being a fan or in the media. I was reading an article about the Leafs draft record and wondered just how bad their draft record history has actually been, how it compared with a baseline team, oh say, the Oilers, then realized there were lots of teams I hoped to prove the Oilers could out-draft (Flames, Canucks), and figured what the hell, lets do all the Canadian teams. This will probably be a lot of work for little to comment on, but there's always a story to be found for the biased fan.

I went ten years back, starting with the 1998 draft, because ten years seemed like a reasonable amount of time to fairly evaluate a player's development and if the organization stuck with them. I looked at the first three rounds of the draft rather than the first three picks since that shows both how well a team drafts in the higher rounds, as well as how much they value keeping those draft picks rather than trading them off. To me, anything after the fourth round is pretty random, hence the cutoff after three rounds. Teams are listed in alphabetical order rather than draft order, just for consistency's sake. I also listed which two players were drafted immediately afterwards, since I figured that's a fair way to evaluate comparables at that point in the draft and who management was likely deciding between. Two players is admittedly arbitrary, but I wanted a limited scope of players who were both immediately available and would save me some time. Keeping a small scope, at least for this exercise, was important because I wanted to show both good and bad decisions in a proper context. It doesn't make sense to rip a team because, say, Player A was drafted 3rd but Player B, drafted 18th, turned into a superstar, since obviously a lot of other teams missed the ball as well. How Henrik Zetterberg lasted until the 7th Round in 1999 is a bigger question and for a different post, preferably by someone else. Players with a bracketed number next to their name are the ones drafted, followed by the two players drafted afterwards. I also gave a subjective opinion on which Canadian team did the best and worst in their three rounds' worth of pick. Onward...

1998 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Vincent Lecavalier

1st round
Calgary Rico Fata (6th), Manny Malholtra, Mark Bell
Edmonton Michael Henrich (13th), Patrick DesRochers, Mattieu Chouinard
Montreal Eric Chouinard (16th), Martin Skoula, Dmitri Kalinin
Ottawa Mattieu Chouinard (15th), Eric Chouinard, Martin Skoula
Toronto Nik Antropov (10th), Jeff Heerema, Alex Tanguay
Vancouver Brian Allen (4th overall), Vitali Vishnevski, Rico Fata


2nd round
Calgary Blair Betts (33rd), Andrew Peters, Petr Svoboda
Edmonton No picks
Montreal Mike Ribeiro (45th), Justin Papineau, Norm Milley
Ottawa Mike Fisher (44th), Mike Ribeiro, Justin Papineau, Chris Bala (58th), Todd Hornung, Denis Arkipov
Toronto Petr Svoboda (35th), Chris Nielsen, Christian Berglund
Vancouver Artem Chubarov (31st overall), Stephen Peat, Blair Betts


3rd Round
Calgary Paul Manning (62nd), Lance Ward, Brad Richards
Edmonton Alex Henry (67th), Jarkko Ruutu, Jamie Hodson
Montreal Francois Beauchemin (75th), Alexei Volkov, Mike Pandolfo
Ottawa Julien Vauclair (74th), Francois Beauchemin, Alexei Volkov
Toronto Jamie Hodson (69th), Kevin Holdridge, Eric Cole
Vancouver Jarko Ruutu (68th), Jamie Hodson, Kevin Holdridge, Justin Morrison (81st), Brian Gionta, Matt Walker

The first round shows some impact players that are still in the league. Toronto would rather have have Tanguay over Antropov, but that's not a huge error since Antropov had 56 points this year. No glaring errors in the second round either, though I bet Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver would love to have taken Mike Fisher. The third round is getting into crap shoot territory but Paul Manning over Brad Richards? Jamie Hodson over Eric Cole? Brian Gionta would have looked great in Vancouver this year wouldn't he? Better than Justin Morrison anyways. Ouch. Best: Montreal. Worst: Edmonton. Just a terrible draft.

1999 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Patrick Stefan

1st round
Calgary Oleg Saprykin (11th), Denis Shvidki, Jani Rita
Edmonton Jani Rita (12th), Jeff Jillson, Scott Kelman
Montreal No picks
Ottawa Martin Havlat (26th), Ari Ahonen, Kristian Kudroc
Toronto Luca Cereda (24th), Mikhail Kuleshov, Martin Havlat
Vancouver Daniel Sedin (2nd), Henrik Sedin (3rd), Pavel Brendl, Tim Connolly


2nd round
Calgary Dan Cavanaugh (38th), Alexander Buturlin, Alex Auld
Edmonton Alexei Semenov (36th), Nolan Yonkman, Dan Cavanaugh, Tony Salmelainen (41st), Mike Commodore, Andrei Shefer
Montreal Alexander Buturlin (39th), Alex Auld, Tony Salmelainen, Matt Carkner (58th), David Inman, Peter Reynolds
Ottawa Simon Lajeunesse (48th), Brett Lysak, Brett Clouthier, Teemu Sainomaa (62th), Stepan Mokhov, Mike Zigomanis
Toronto Peter Reynolds (60th), Ed Hill, Teemu Sainomaa
Vancouver No picks


3rd Round
Calgary Craig Anderson (77th), Mattias Weinhandl, Johan Asplund
Edmonton Adam Hauser (81st), Mark Concannon, Niclas Havlid, Mike Comrie (91st), Cory Campbell, Branko Randivojevic
Montreal No picks
Ottawa Chris Kelly (94th), Andre Lakos, Mathias Tjarnqvist
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Tanner Kaunisviita (69th), Niklas Hagman, Jason Jaspers

What a crappy draft. Despite being hailed as one of the deepest in years (sound familiar?) the best player (Zetterberg) came out of the seventh round, the first round was full of busts (Stefan, Brendl, Rita) and great talent derailed by injury (Havlat, Connolly). Edmonton got its best player in the third round, Comrie, but otherwise there's nothing inspiring on this board at all. Ug, moving on. Best: Vancouver. Worst: Toronto.

2000 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Rick DiPietro

1st Round
Calgary Brett Krahn (9th), Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev
Edmonton Alexei Mikhnov (17th), Brooks Orpik, Kris Kolanos
Montreal Ron Hainsey (13th), Vaclav Nedorost, Artem Kryukov, Marcel Hossa (16th), Alexei Mikhnov, Brooks Orpik
Ottawa Anton Volchenkov (21st), David Hale, Nathan Smith
Toronto Brad Boyes (24th), Steve Ott, Brian Sutherby
Vancouver Nathan Smith (23rd), Brad Boyes, Steve Ott


2nd round
Calgary Kurtis Foster (40th), Tero Maatta, Libor Ustrnul, Jarret Stoll (46th), Jared Aulin, Gerard Dicaire
Edmonton Brad Winchester (35th), Daniel Widing, Andy Hilbert
Montreal No picks
Ottawa Mattieu Chouinard (45th), Ilya Bryzgalov, Jarret Stoll, Antoine Vermette (55th), Aleksander Suglobov, Matt DeMarchi
Toronto Kris Vernarsky (51st), Shane Endicott, Alexander Tatarinov
Vancouver No picks


3rd Round
Calgary No picks
Edmonton Alexander Ljubimov (83rd), Peter Hamerlik, Ramzi Abid
Montreal Josef Balej (78th), Tyler Hanchuck(79th), Ryan Bayda, Alexander Kharitonov
Ottawa Jan Bohac (87th), Kurt Sauer, Libor Pivko
Toronto Jean-Francois Racine (90th), Alexei Tereschenko, Sergei Kliazmin
Vancouver Thatcher Bell (71st), Mattias Nilssen, Sergei Zinovjev, Tim Branham (93rd), Alexander Dzozdetsky, Dominic Moore

A top-heavy draft for sure. No glaring errors except for Vancouver taking Nathan Smith instead of Brad Boyes, who Toronto wonderfully traded for a broken-down Owen Nolan. Like the 1999 draft, a true lack of impact players drafted by Canadian teams, with the exception of Ottawa. Best: Toronto, just because of Boyes. Worst: Vancouver, also because of Boyes.

2001 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Ilya Kovalchuk

Calgary Chuck Kobasew (14th), Igor Knyazev, R.J. Umberger
Edmonton Ales Hemsky (13th), Chuck Kobasew, Igor Knyazev
Montreal Mike Komisarek (7th), Pascal Leclair, Tuomo Ruutu, Alexander Perezhogin (25th), Jason Bacashihua, Jeff Woywitka
Ottawa Jason Spezza (2nd), Alexandr Svitov, Stephen Weiss, Tim Gleason (23rd), Lukas Krajicek, Alexander Perezhogin
Toronto Carlo Colaiacovo (17th), Jens Karlsson, Shoane Morrisonn
Vancouver R.J. Umberger (16th), Carlo Colaiacovo, Jens Karlsson


2nd round
Calgary Andrei Taratukhin (41st), Tomas Slovak, Doug Lynch
Edmonton Doug Lynch (43rd), Igor Pohanka, Martin Podlesak, Ed Caron (52rd), Kiel McLeod, Noah Welch
Montreal Duncan Milroy (37th), Tim Jackman, Karel Pilar
Ottawa No picks
Toronto Karel Pilar (39th), Fedor Tyutin, Andrei Taratukhin
Vancouver No picks


3rd Round
Calgary No picks
Edmonton Kenny Smith (84th), Aaron Johnson, Drew Fata
Montreal Thomas Plekanec (71st), Brandon Nolan, Craig Anderson
Ottawa Neil Komadoski (81st), Jay Harrison, Henrik Juntunen
Toronto Brenden Bell (65th), Fedor Fedorov, Robin Leblanc, Jay Harrison (82nd), Henrik Juntenen, Kenny Smith, Nicolas Corbeil (88th), Tuomas Nissinen, Owen Fussey
Vancouver Fedor Fedorov (66th), Robin Leblanc, Grant McNeill

Pretty good showing for each Canadian team. Each team drafted an NHLer in the first round, and Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal came away with franchise players. Best: Narrowly to Montreal, for getting Komisarek and Plekanec. Worst: Vancouver.


2002 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Rick Nash

1st Round
Calgary Eric Nystrom (10th), Keith Ballard, Steve Eminger
Edmonton Jesse Niinimaki (15th), Jakub Klepis, Boyd Gordon
Montreal Chris Higgins (14th), Jesse Niinimaki, Jakub Klepis
Ottawa Jakub Klepis (16th), Boyd Gordon, Denis Grebeshkov
Toronto Alexander Steen (24th), Cam Ward, Martin Vagner
Vancouver No picks


2nd round
Calgary Brian McConnell (39th), Rob Globke, Joakim Lindstrom
Edmonton Jeff Deslauriers (31th), Janos Vas, Lee Falardeau, Jarret Stoll (36th), Tim Brent, Josh Harding, Matt Greene (44th), Matthew Daley, David LeNeveu
Montreal Matthew Daley (45th), David LeNeveu, Alexei Kaigorodov
Ottawa Alexei Kaigorodov (47th), Alexei Shkotov, Kirill Koltsov
Toronto Matt Stajan (57th), Jiri Hudler, Maxime Daigneault
Vancouver Kirill Koltsov (49th), Sergei Anshakov, Anton Kadeykin, Dennis Grot (55th), Vladislav Evseev, Matt Stajan


3rd Round
Calgary Matthew Lombardi (90th), Jesse Lane, Derek Krestanovitch
Edmonton Brock Radunske (79th), Matt Jones, Marcus Jonasen
Montreal No picks
Ottawa No picks
Toronto Todd Ford (74th), Arttu Luttinen, Michael Tessier, Dominic D'Amour (88th), Tomas Troliga, Matthew Lombardi
Vancouver Brett Skinner (68th), Erik Christiensen, Joe Callahan, Lukas Mensator (83rd), Marek Chvatal

Some nice picks in here, no real lapses save Brett Skinner over Erik Christiensen and Alex Steen over Cam Ward. Though given Toronto's ability to draft goalie prospects then trade them, not a big loss. Best: Edmonton, for their second round alone. Worst: Vancouver.

2003 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Marc-Andre Fleury

1st Round
Calgary Dion Phaneuf (7th), Andrei Kostitsyn, Jeff Carter
Edmonton Marc-Antoine Pouliot (22nd), Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards
Montreal Andrei Kostitsyn (8th), Jeff Carter, Hugh Jessiman
Ottawa Patrick Eaves (29th), Shawn Belle, Danny Richmond
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Ryan Kesler (23rd), Mike Richards, Anthony Stewart


2nd round
Calgary Tim Ramholt (39th), Cory Urquhart, Matt Smaby
Edmonton Colin McDonald (51st), Corey Crawford, Evgeni Tunik, Jean-Francois Jacques (65th), Colin Fraser, Jonathon Filewich
Montreal Cory Urquhart (40th), Matt Smaby, Petr Vrana, Maxim Lapierre (61th), David Backes, David Lifton
Ottawa No picks
Toronto John Doherty (57th), Jeremy Colliton, Michal Barinka
Vancouver Marc-Andre Bernier (60th), Maxim Lapierre, David Backes


3rd Round
Calgary Ryan Donally (97th), Grigory Shafigulin, Matt Nickerson
Edmonton Mikhail Zhukov (72nd), Daniel Carcillo, Clarke MacArthur, Zack Stortini (94th), Rick Kozak, Jonathon Boutin
Montreal No picks
Ottawa Philippe Seydoux (100th), Konstantine Zakharov, Aaron Dawson
Toronto Martin Sagat (91st), Alexander Sulzer, Ivan Khomutov
Vancouver No picks

Great draft, that whole first round has played in the NHL except for Hugh Jessiman, who went 12th. Booboos go to Edmonton, for trading the 17th pick (Zack Parise, 31 goals last year, 32 this year) for two later pick (Marc-Antoine Pouliot and J.F. Jacques). Pouliot has played pretty well for Edmonton since being called up this year, but Jacques hasn't stuck despite playing pretty well for Springfield in the AHL. Other booboos to Toronto, for trading their 1st round pick, along with Brad Boyes and Alyn McCauley to San Jose the year before for Owen Nolan. Had they not made that trade, they keep Boyes and McCauley and have a chance to draft one of Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, or Corey Perry. Shitty. Best: Calgary, for getting Phaneuf at number 6. Worst: Tie, Toronto and Edmonton.

2004 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Alexander Ovechkin

1st Round
Calgary Kris Chuko (24th), Rob Schremp, Cory Schneider
Edmonton Devan Dubnyk (14th), Alexander Radulov, Petteri Nokelainen, Rob Schremp (25th), Cory Schneider, Jeff Schultz
Montreal Kyle Chipchura (18th), Lauri Korpikoski, Travis Zajac
Ottawa Andrei Meszaros (23rd), Kris Chuko, Rob Schremp
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Cory Schneider (26th), Jeff Schultz, Mark Fistric


2nd round
Calgary No picks
Edmonton Roman Tesliuk (44th), Ryan Garlock, Adam Pineault, Geoff Paukovich (57th), Kirill Lyamin, Kyle Wharton
Montreal No picks
Ottawa Kirill Lyamin (58th), Kyle Wharton, Brandon Dubinsky
Toronto No picks
Vancouver No picks


3rd Round
Calgary Dustin Boyd (98th), Tyler Kennedy, J.T. Wyman
Edmonton No picks
Montreal Alexei Yemelin (84th), Brian Gifford, John Lammers
Ottawa Peter Regin (87th), Clayton Barthel, Jeff Glass (89th), Justin Pogge, Alexander Edler
Toronto Justin Pogge (90th), Alexander Edler, Rob Bellamy
Vancouver Alexander Edler (91st), Rob Bellamy, Dan Lacosta

Now we get into some serious top-heavy drafts. Washington wins this draft even if they had used the rest of their picks on arena personnel. Edmonton and Vancouver take goalies in the first round but at this point, neither is as good a prospect as Justin Pogge who Toronto picked later, probably by accident, at 90th. That's a nice third round string of Jeff Glass, Pogge and Alexander Edler in a row. Two gold-medal Canadian junior goalies and a good young defenseman for Vancouver. Oopsies: Edmonton for taking Dubnyk over Radulov (still early in both careers but Radulov is good), and Vancouver for taking Schneider when, yes I'm looking three spots instead of two, they could have had Mike Green at 29th. Best: Pretty tough since there were lots of gaps, but marginally Vancouver and Edmonton for each having two prospects (Dubnyk, Schneider, Schremp and Edler) who are still relevent. Worst: Toronto saves it's poor draft by grabbing Pogge, so Calgary is barely the worst having only Dustin Boyd remaining as a factor. Still, this is a pretty even draft for the six Canadian teams.

2005 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Sidney Crosby (James Duthie interviewing Brian Burke after Burke picked Bobby Ryan at #2: "Are you surprised Bobby Ryan fell this far to number 2?")

1st Round
Calgary Matt Pelech (25th), Joe Finley, Matt Niskanen
Edmonton Andrew Cogliano (24th), Matt Pelech, Joe Finley
Montreal Carey Price (5th), Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille
Ottawa Brian Lee (9th), Luc Bourdon, Gilbert Brule
Toronto Tuuka Rask (21st), Matt Lashoff, Nicklas Bergfors
Vancouver Luc Bourdon (10th), Anze Kopitar, Marc Staal


2nd round
Calgary No picks
Edmonton Taylor Chorney (36th), Scott Jackson, Jeff Frazee
Montreal Guillaume Latendresse (45th), Dustin Kohn, Tom Fritsche
Ottawa No picks
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Mason Raymond (51st), Chris Durand, Andrew Kozek


3rd Round
Calgary Gord Baldwin (69th), Vitaly Anikeenko, Richard Clune, Dan Ryder (74th), Perttu Lindgren, Shea Guthrie
Edmonton Danny Syvret (81st), Phil Oreskovic, Mikko Lehtonen, Robbie Dee (86th), Marc-Andre Gragnani, T.J. Hensick
Montreal No picks
Ottawa No picks
Toronto Vitaly Anikeenko (70th), Richard Clune, Jon Quick, Phil Oreskovic (82nd), Mikko Lehtonen, Mark Fraser
Vancouver No picks

Ah, the big draft after the lockout. Obviously as we get to more recent drafts it becomes hard to paint winners and losers, mistakes from good judgement, so we'll have to go by What We Still Think Is True about chosen players. Luc Bourdon may turn into an impact defenseman and a solid pick, but knowing Anze Kopitar put up 20 goals last year and 77 points this year will make it tough choice to live down. It's not like Kopitar came out of nowhere either, he was the top-ranked European skater. A good pick for the Leafs in Tuuka Rask went bad as a result of poor asset management; he was traded for Andrew Raycroft who's now likely on his way out of Toronto. They already had Pogge too, so perhaps Cogliano, who's even from Toronto, would have been a better pick. Don Cherry thought so on Coach's Corner, so it must be true. Best: Montreal, who got Price and Latendresse. Worst: Calgary so far.

2006 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Erik Johnson

1st Round
Calgary Leland Irving (26th), Ivan Vishnevskiy, Nick Foligno
Edmonton No picks
Montreal David Fischer (20th), Bob Sanguinetti, Claude Giroux
Ottawa Nick Foligno (28th), Chris Summers, Matt Corentte
Toronto Jiri Tlusty (13th), Michael Grabner, Riku Helenius
Vancouver Michael Grabner (14th), Riku Helenius, Ty Wishart


2nd round
Calgary No picks
Edmonton Jeff Petry (45th), Jhonas Enroth, Shawn Matthias
Montreal Ben Maxwell (49th), Milan Lucic, Nigel Williams, Mattieu Carle (53rd), Artem Anisimov, Denis Bodrov
Ottawa No picks
Toronto Nikolai Kulemin (44th), Jeff Petry, Jhonas Enroth
Vancouver No picks


3rd Round
Calgary John Armstrong (87th), Jonas Ahnelov, Aaron Marvin (88th), Aaron Snow, Kaspars Daugavins
Edmonton Theo Peckham (75th), Tony Lagerstrom, Vladimir Zharkov
Montreal Ryan White (66th), Kirill Tulupov, Eric Gryba
Ottawa Eric Gryba (68th), Steve Mason, Robin Figren, Kaspars Daugavins (90th), Daniel Larsson, Harrison Reed
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Daniel Rahimi (82nd), John DeGray, Ryan Hillier

Getting even more speculative in our judgements now. No top-end talent acquired here, but a few smallish errors. Steve Mason looks like a real good goalie prospect for Columbus, so maybe Montreal would rather have him than Eric Gryba. They have enough young goalies though, so not a big miss. Yeah I know you could draft him and trade him later, but he only developed as well as he did because he got playing time, something he wouldn't have got in Montreal's system playing behind Price and Halak. Also, Claude Giroux almost made the Flyers this year, so he might have been a better pick for the Habs than David Fischer. Giroux's even French. Fischer's still in school, so hard to tell at this point. Vancouver loses points for drafting Grabner when they could have had Wishart, a solid defenseman and a former Prince George Cougar no less. Best: Gee. Um. I dunno, Toronto for getting Tlusty? Worst: Undetermined/Everyone else.

2007 NHL Draft
1st Overall Pick: Patrick Kane

1st Round
Calgary Mikael Backlund (24th), Patrick White, David Perron
Edmonton Sam Gagner (6th), Jakub Voracek, Zack Hamill, Alex Plante (15th), Colton Gillies, Alexei Cherepanov, Riley Nash (21st), Max Pacioretty, Jonathon Blum
Montreal Ryan McDonagh (12th), Lars Eller, Kevin Shattenkirk, Max Pacioretty (22nd), Jonathon Blum, Mikael Backlund
Ottawa Jim O'Brien (29th), Nick Ross, T.J. Brennen
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Patrick White (25th), David Perron, Brendan Smith


2nd round
Calgary No picks
Edmonton No picks
Montreal No picks
Ottawa Ruslan Bashkirov (60th), Wayne Simmonds, Mark Katic
Toronto No picks
Vancouver Taylor Ellington (33rd), Josh Godfrey, Tommy Cross


3rd Round
Calgary John Negrin (70th), Evgeni Dadonov, Drayson Bowman
Edmonton No picks
Montreal Olivier Fortier (65th), Garrett Klotz, Spencer Machacek
Ottawa Louie Caporusso (90th), Tyson Sexsmith, Justin Vaive
Toronto Dale Mitchell (74th), Luca Cunti, Jason Gregoire
Vancouver No picks

Oh God finally done this stupid idea. A hard draft to gauge since the player most thought was the best talent, Cherepanov, wasn't drafted until later and might take a while to get to the NHL. Kyle Turris also hasn't played yet so it's hard to say how he'll compare to Kane and Gagner. David Perron made the Blues this year and Mikael Backlund didn't make the Flames, but the Flames are also a very good team and the Blues are the very opposite. Still, Perron looks like a pretty good player. Biggest Oops goes to Edmonton, twice, if Cherepanov turns into a superstar (and better than Gagner) but otherwise no glaring errors for anyone. Best: Edmonton, easily, for getting the best player of any Canadian team. Worst: Toronto, who hates draft day and tries its best to get rid of as many picks as possible so it won't have to sit there all day.

So I won't do that again, it got going pretty fast after a while but there's just way too much information to distill and contemplate. First conclusion: Most of the draft is teams drafting a non-factor with other non-factors following them. Most players who are drafted do nothing, so it's probably more fair for fans to be thankful when any of them actually make it. Second conclusion: Some commentators (Bill Watters on Sportsnet for one), say Edmonton has among the best young talent in the NHL. If that's true, then why does Edmonton have so many Oopses on the list? Well first, I know a bit more about them than other teams so this list probably isn't fair. The biggest reason, however, is that there's more than one way to assemble and develop young talent. The draft is important, sure, but by trading one very good draft pick (Ryan Smyth, 6th in 1994), the Oilers picked up Robert Nilsson (who had more points than Smyth this past year, though in more games), a first-rounder (Alex Plante, jury still out), and Ryan O'Marra (jury still out, but at least made it out of the ECHL). Also, because of the trade, the Oilers were beyond awful in their last twenty games. As a result, they slid way down the standings and were able to draft Sam Gagner. So four pieces of their youth movement came from one trade. That's a pretty cold way of looking at it since I still wish they hadn't traded Smyth, but a couple of good choices can clearly offset some glaring mistakes. In other words, the draft isn't the only way to build a young talent base.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting read. Drafting players is like buying stocks. You can only judge based on previous experience, so I wonder just how much of the error is due to poor scouting, or poor performance as a junior - leading scouts to perceive a lower value. That said, I'm still of the belief that a good scouting network is something a team must invest in - with time and money. As you refer to sample size, I would argue that the sample is large enough to indicate certain patterns among teams' success, leading one to deduce that the quality of scouting is the more dominant factor. That said, it's difficult to credit a team like Washington or Pittsburg with monumental drafts like Ovechkin and Crosby, since those were the obvious choices. One could further argue, using right-wing economic thinking, that successful teams become more efficient in scouting, as they are forced into those lower draft slots.

Darth Forehand said...

It's a total crapshoot, there's no doubt. Like you say, to properly determine a team's draft record you almost have to throw away the outliers like Crosby, Ovechkin, Tavares, Stamkos, players that, even if they were to not turn out, were far and away the consensus pick. In that sense, you'd have to include Alexander Daigle as well.

In today's salary cap era, I'd argue that big market teams have a far greatest draft advantage than small market teams. Now, teams spend an equal amount on player salaries, leaving big revenue teams more resourses to allocate to scouting and player development than before. Presumably, since the salaries were slashed after the lockout, high revenue teams have a surplus of cash they can still out-spend little markets with. Right wing economics indeed.