Prediction

Brian Burke will not go to Toronto this year. So says TSN, Burke, Ducks CEO Mike (don't call me Dan) Schulman, and presumably owner Henry Samueli. Unless the Leafs want to let Cliff Fletcher drive the Leafs' little schoolbus for the next year, at which point Burke's contract will be up (barring an extension), another name will have to be drawn out of a hat. Also, the Leafland media is gradually coming to the realization that the Leafs GM position is perhaps not the equivalent of Guy Who Counts Roomfull Of Cash Because Nobody Knows How Much Is In There job, and publicly offering up said job will probably not bring Ken Holland, Lou Lamoriello or Bob Gainey racing their Segways to the MLSE offices, slapping and shoving each other up the escalator, jamming papers back into their briefcases while simultaneously shouting their names to Richard Peddie's secretary.

I'll pause while you enjoy that image.

Right then. So with none of those candidates interested and/or available, who are the most likely candidates for the Leafs job? I can't seem to find anyone in my usual website roundabout willing to write loud, boisterous columbs, no bold predictions or top 150 candidates for Who Should Run This Crappy Team. Even TSN, with a hockey staff roughly the size of the old Stasi, just keeps churning out the same stories about Brian Burke's status with the Ducks. Sure you hear lots of names thrown around, but nobody's willing to make blind foolish predictions. That won't do. So, as a public service, I'll submit to you the Loyal Reader my list of options for the Leafs GM position.

1. Colin Campbell
2. Doug Armstrong
3. Neil Smith

That's it. This isn't the Vancouver Canucks or Sacramento Bumwads, this is the New York Yankess of the NHL. As many have correctly stated, this team doesn't need to take chances with new candidates, bright young up-and-comers or former player agents. No sir. If you're the Leafs, you go out and buy the best name. If he fails, go buy the next best name, and so forth. The salary cap only serves to increase MLSE's profits and since it has no effect on management salaries, there's no reason to shop Zellers when you can peruse Harrod's instead. These three are are the best available, have the most experience, good media skills and the high profile necessary to front the biggest hockey market in the NHL. I don't know how you qualify "biggest," there's a few U.S. markets that dwarf Toronto of course, but between the large southern Ontario population and the large capacity on the back of the bandwagon, I think it's a safe bet that the Leafs have the largest, if most lethargic, apathetic and delightfully unhappy, fanbase.

The best of these candidates is Doug Armstrong, former assistant GM and GM of the Dallas Stars who, with the exception of the Brad Richards trade made at this year's trade deadline, was responsible for building a perennial division and conference challenger. Since 2002-2003 the team has averaged 104.8 points per season, won a Stanley Cup in 1999 with Armstrong as Assistant GM, and hired Dave Tippett who, in five seasons, has compiled a 235-121-28-26 regular season record. He was fired following a bad loss to Los Angeles last November, a loss for which he, as GM, was entirely responsible and should have been able to personally prevent.

Neil Smith won a Stanley Cup in 1994 with the Rangers, he's used to big media, used to a corporate atmosphere but is a second choice. He hasn't been a GM since 2000 (not counting his six week tenure for the Islanders) and may be viewed as a consolation prize.

My prediction is that despite Armstrong's rep, Colin Campbell will get the job. He's an ex-league disciplinarian, like Brian Burke, and has seemingly wanted the Leafs job for a while since he turned down the Flyers GM job in November 2006. Assuming that's true, he comes in motivated and perfectly able to handle the Leaf media, since as the NHL's sheriff he's faced FAR tougher questions than whether Jiri Tlusty is really a long-term solution. I imagine after years in a pretty thankless job he'd love to run the Leafs, though not having a Stanley Cup or NHL GM experience won't be in his favor. Richard Peddie was pretty clear, he wanted a guy with a Stanley Cup and long-term experience, so that would appear to erase Campbell's chances entirely. Still, I can't see them going with a successful though still relatively unknown Armstrong or lack of any recent success Smith so my guess, which is not an argument for or against, is Campbell.

The other thing that I keep thinking about is the league's suspension and discipline policies. Campbell was unwilling to make any bold statements or set precedents when given the opportunity by Chris Pronger this year. The league, rightfully so, is being hammered from all sides about its inability to make consistent suspension decisions and create any kind of meaningful standards. Matthieu Schneider said today on Bob McCown's radio show that he was unimpressed with the inconsistency shown in the Chris Simon and Chris Pronger suspensions, NHLPA head Paul Kelly endorsed the idea of having specific guidelines for suspensions rather than treating each incident in a vacuum and fans, goaded by the media, are growing increasingly frustrated with with the seemingly random, out-of-a-hat method of deciding the length of suspensions and amount of fines. This would appear to be the ideal time to make a regime change and implement some of the many player, management and league suggestions. It's perfect, Campbell gets the job he wants, the league brings in a few face to restructure the rules and utopia arrives. Pretty hard to make any substantial guesses without much inside information, but it's very easy to make foolish, unaccountable ones.

So my reasons aren't very good but it's not about reasons, it's about who's right. Look, I've won my playoff hockey pool two or maybe three years in a row, so I think I know how to hire an NHL General Manager. If they hire Campbell I'm not sure how they spin their flip-flop as they seemed pretty determined to get a Stanley Cup winning GM. Ultimately it's foolish to make any predictions, nobody knows anything about the process or how they're interviewing. Still, with the draft on June 20th and free agency starting July 1st, you'd think they'd want somebody on the job in the next month or so and therefore you'd hear more rumors and news. There are long-term decisions to be made this summer; this isn't dumping veterans for prospects at the deadline. Fletcher made the deadline deals he could to "set the table," as he said, for the next GM. You can't let him make the upcoming long-term team decisions unless he's going to be around long-term, otherwise you handcuff the new guy.

In writing this I realize why there aren't many articles out there listing the Top 5 Leaf GM candidates, and instead lots of just general name throwing. One reason seems to be that it's possible the Leafs have truly sealed off any leaks and nobody knows anything. That was no more on display than with the Brian Burke predictions, saying he was the first choice, his negotiations with the Ducks were unclear, and that he was leaving the door open to take the Leafs job. Burke has been the number one rumor since John Ferguson Jr. was fired, despite all his rantings to the contrary (Brian Burke does not speak, he RANTS. "...and would you like fries or salad?" "THIS OFFER IS AN ACT OF DESPERATION FROM A SERVER TRYING TO SAVE HER JOB. THIS IS THE SECOND TIME YOU HAVE OFFERED A GROSSLY INFLATED NUMBER OF SIDE CHOICES." Here's the original article the Burke Rant Template comes from), and there really hasn't been a strong second choice to rumor over. In theory then it should be pretty quiet until the decision is made, what with the ability of the MLSE board to keep quiet, at least in this matter.